The Most Important Question Right Now…
…for goldbugs like us anyway. Just how high will this leg take us, and when do I need to step aside ?
As you all know, I’ve been predicting that the ‘golden bowl’ or ‘arc’ will take us back towards the old highs. I think it’s safe to say that it’s pretty much done its job now, and we have a date with that $1700-$1800 area. I don’t know about you, but I want to be ready this time. Ready to take profits close to this particular top. I think it’s reasonable to expect a bit of a fight to get past the old highs and up to new all-time highs, with a decent consolidation/pullback likely.
Looking back at how the last great bull run performed can give us many clues. You can see from my chart, that price became extended about 35-40% above the supporting moving average on the monthly chart, during the bigger runs. With that moving average currently sitting at around $1422, the sum is pretty easy and gives us a figure just above $1900 ! On that basis, and considering the current positions of the technical indicators, I now believe my $1700 + target is about as much of a ‘nailed on certainty’ as you can get when predicting the future. I’m edging towards an expectation closer to that $1900 figure. If this turns out to be the case, we can expect that very large move in the mining indices, and silver will certainly move to the $21-$22 region (I wouldn’t rule out a ‘moonshot’ to the next resistance zone of $26-$28.
Exciting times indeed, but sadly it’s the terrible state of the world around us which is driving all of this, lest we forget. Anyway, here are the charts…
Edit: Silver chart added
Yes and Yes. And Yes.
Yes, this is an important question.
valuable analysis. My own personal work measures the move to $1763-$1795. Would expect a few short term drawdowns getting there from here possible as soon as this week.
These numbers could be overshot of course.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=M&st=2010-01-01&id=p54080389950&a=698694371&listNum=300
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=W&st=2015-11-02&id=p98223018528&a=699100027&listNum=300
My biggest fear is what should we do if gold will reach your targets (the old highs) and a stock like first majestic will not even able to reach 20 dollars (it’s now around 10 dollars) (the level it reached in the 2016 in 2011!)
It will be much easier to make a decision if you have physical gold (or a gold etf) than individual gold / silver stocks.
I meant:it will not be able to reach 20 dollars (the level it reached in 2016 not in 2011)
So your biggest fear is only doubling your money?
I think it is bullish actually as it keeps psychology in check for an eventual higher push
You’re making me jittery with this exit discussion NS. But, you are right, of course, to plan for an eventual exit. Carry on sir!
Excellent analysis and excellent topic.
Thanks NS