Loading ...Trying Not To Be Complacent
I’ve learned over the years just how important it is to look at downside risk, even when you’re pretty sure price is going to go up. I’ve read some cautious posts on here recently, and I agree, there’s ‘something in the air’. A large move is almost upon us, in my view. With that in mind, this is how I’m seeing things…
The price action on silver is trapped in a corner… descending trend line on daily chart.. and 50 day MA right below it…
Looks like a huge move up. Is it too easy ?
Your chart and analysis look correct (in other words rather probable) to me.
Your chart is of the long term. I would not be astonished by problems in the near future, starting in about 10 days.
To repeat what I’ve written before, including probably in prior years at Spock, I have memories going back many years of being enthusiastic about the PM stocks going into the PDAC meeting only to see the PM prices or the PM stocks crushed around the time of the meeting, usually during the meeting but sometimes just before or afterwards. I expect that there are more sophisticated ways of marking the beginning of the possible danger period, but I simply remember the PDAC, which starts on March 1.
One can easily imagine various world-wide problems causing the gold price to go up or down fast at any point. I have a harder time seeing silver go up suddenly, though I suppose it could follow gold up. I could imagine all sorts of problems where industrial demand craters and along with it silver prices or all stock prices including PM stock prices — temporarily.
So if this is like the usual years I’ll be getting really excited about the PM stocks and then most of them will do horribly starting around early March. But even a brief nasty spell in gold and the PM stocks should just be a blip in the long term charts I think.
Longwinded way of saying I agree, but watch out for early March, temporarily.
Thanks for the comments Karl. I’ll be tracking the charts carefully. As always, time will tell 🙂