Goldtent TA Paradise

So is this a bust?

1. Karl says:

   February 7, 2020 - 2:06 pm at 2:06 pm

   Thank you for the interesting chart.

   It will be interesting to see any comments from Northstar or Patrick.

   Patrick if I understand him correctly might object to drawing the curved line using the tips of the downward wicks. Using the tips of the wicks might introduce too much noise, I think he believes. But I might have misunderstood him.

   I like looking at all these diagrams and admire the interpretations, but I deeply distrust anything that depends on a yes/no answer to whether something crosses a sharp line. To me, zones of probability is a more realistic way of looking at things.

   If I had time and energy the way I’d do it is somewhat differently. I’d try to get numbers — as much data as possible, possibly volume-weighted — from, say, August, 2019, to the present. I’d then try to see whether it fit a polynomial well — for example, whether it really did fit a certain parabolic function. If so, then I’d calculate the probability the current numbers are outside or inside the zone of the fit of the parabolic function. I hope I’m describing it o.k. and not massacring the description of the statistics (I’m not a statistician). I might have a predetermined strategy for action using how well the current numbers fit the function. Let’s say that I might have a policy that if there was more than a 95% chance that the current numbers were outside the parabolic function that best fit the data, then I’d sell. But I don’t do that stuff any more. Too much else to do. I just eyeball it and read others’ comments.

   • Karl says:

     February 7, 2020 - 2:20 pm at 2:20 pm

     To ramble–

     Your chart may be pointing to something important. At about 2:10 pm ET NAmerica gold is up, silver and base metals are down, and the gold companies are down. I sold a couple of Cu juniors earlier in the afternoon–these 2 are usually pretty liquid but there weren’t too many bids–it was as if the quoted prices were there almost for show. The stock market was down (though presumably it may get propped up late in the day). In other words, it looks as if people may be going into the weekend nervous about holding anything except maybe good old safe gold itself.

     These are not good signs. They may be good signs for the price of gold itself but not so much for gold companies in the short-short term, or for silver. People may be worrying and raising cash, starting to sell all sorts of stuff, including the GDX?

     In a deflationary environment the good gold producers should make money hand over fist, if that’s what people are worrying about. It should be cheap to produce. Yet these companies may get hit before people realize their possible worth in a possibly panicky world. Your chart — my pedantic comments notwithstanding — may well be pointing to something important. We will see.

2. Patrick says:

   February 7, 2020 - 2:30 pm at 2:30 pm

   Yes Karl.. I use closes of candles to draw break lines. Ken… possible on the daily we go down.. until we hit some weekly support and chart morphs. If it is not breaking out now.. it’s just not ready. Still bullish on higher time frames.. touching 30 week MA on weekly and monthly 6% above 1 year moving average.