Loading ...Virus Schmirus
I would never presume to know anything about how virulent and dangerous any particular virus is .
BUT….with Billions / Trillions of $s world wide in the Stock Markets
You can bet that the Biggest money managers DO know !
I am certain they employ Microbiologists who are experts in this field as well as inside people who
have access to the most poignant information regarding containment etc.
The market reacted violently down for 2 days and now has completely stabilized
This says to me that the risk of an uncontrollable pandemic is very low.
This of course is a very Good Thing.
Still there are many many sites who are warning of imminent disaster.
But they are being marginalized by the QQQ and SPY investors
Party On Markets !
My undergraduate degree was in microbiology, and I am not at all sanguine about this virus. Here’s a discussion (between 2 non-microbiologists) that seems somewhat informative: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pjHbogeWiXU
Bottom line: not enough data yet to determine the lethality of this virus, but also too early to declare the coast is clear.
Thanks Jim
I guess what I am saying is We can read all kinds of opinions…some very alarming and some “sanguine”
OR we can just watch the Dow and Naz to Know .
They will as usual know first.
I think you are absolutely correct Fully. The markets will probably inform us whether there is cause to worry.
As I have noted earlier in the day, I think it is important both to keep an open mind and to be cautious (including hygienic!).
A point was made earlier in the day that Ebola virus did not live up to to some people’s wild projections of worldwide horror.
I would like to make several points in response.
First, although I hedge about various things, I do know for a fact that the US government and nongovernmental administrators (of hospitals, for example) put in huge efforts to prepare for Ebola carriers and patients, and did so behind the scenes so much that many hospital staff did not realize the extent of the preparation made in their very own hospitals. My own ideological bent is such that I would prefer not to praise the potential benefits of US governmental or other bureaucratic efforts, but facts (and I am confident of the facts) are facts. They were prepared. They handled the patients well, keeping them isolated. They worked hard to keep potential carriers isolated at the borders from the US population. They were imperfect, but they did an awfully good job. We cannot know what would have happened if they had not prepared. Perhaps nothing. However it may well have been exactly because of their preparation that in retrospect for us in the US (as opposed to those in the affected areas in Africa) the epidemic seems to have been a dud. Similarly I have to wonder whether Ebola in Canada, Singapore, Japan, Europe, and so Ebola seemed like a dud for the same reason–because of careful and laborious preparation and countermeasures. SARS too perhaps.
Second, there was probably not the huge influx of potential carriers from Ebola-affected areas, and they were often easy to spot. In contrast, there are many people travelling from China, of multiple ethnicities. This meant that carefully prepared border personnel (as much as I hate to give them or their organizations credit) may well have saved us by turning away or temporarily quarantining problem individuals, thereby preventing what otherwise would in fact have been horrific spread. Just knowing about border inspections might have prevented people from trying. I hate making these admissions, but ideology does not conquer all.
Next is a point where I may be wrong, but anyone questioning the seriousness of the situation needs to look up the facts before becoming too glib, I think. I think that with Ebola and SARS people did not effectively spread the disease for long periods of time while asymptomatic. In contrast, I believe it is asserted–that the new corona disease can be infectious long before it is symptomatic. Thus you have lots of travellers who may be asymptomatic spreading it all around without anyone having been informed that it is a problem — maybe.
I happened to visit as a patient a US medical clinic today. I saw discreet signs about travel, fever, coughting, and so forth. There were extra masks and sanitizer bottles around. I happened to talk with an administrator. They have been awfully busy. I overheard a patient getting checked out extra-special for a cough or something just before a trip today or tomorrow. I am glad. If the matter proves to be overblown, it may in fact because of such efforts.
(I can if anyone wants, give a reference asserting or implying that the whole thing is overblown to counter the one I gave earlier today. I just think it is good to be open minded leaning towards caution.)
(As for the thought that it may just be the sick or elderly who are stricken, I do not know the facts. I do know claims. The claims include that people who get very sick and in fact die include recently healthy young adults. If not true, I do not know whether healthy young adults can be asymptomatic carriers.)
From a very close friend who traveled through many of the urban areas of China several years ago, the 10-15 mega-city regions are like NYC Manhattan times 10 or more in size. The smog in these cities is comparable to smoking 2 packs of cigarettes a day. For those who’ve lived there for 10-20 years, their lungs and immune system are already damaged. Also, the medical hygiene is far below Western standards.
Yes, a very serious matter, but for those living in more modern areas of the world, should be a much lower infection rate, and much higher survival level. 600,000+ die worldwide from the flu every year. Very concerned but also cautiously optimistic.
Now, as far as India and the rest of Asia, it could be a very challenging 6-7 months.
More people sick in a few weeks than the entire 9 month SARS epidemic, incubation period of 12 days where the sick become contagious prior to becoming symptomatic, North Korea and Russia have closed their borders with China, China has quarantined 10’s of millions of people… party on markets.