Loading ...Coronavirus
A little off-topic maybe, but it does have economic implications, and I thought it worth a mention whilst we’re waiting for PM’s to make their next major move.
I know that every death caused by any illness is sad for those involved, but I think a little context might be useful here.
There are all sorts of apocalyptic headlines, and warnings about how bad this is, with very tight restrictions being put in place, particularly in China (with the likely effects that may have on Chinese output, GDP, etc). Coronavirus is a group of viruses which includes the common cold. A current article on Zerohedge states the following…
131 deaths. So how many die each year from ordinary flu ? Around about half a million…
The elderly and those with pre-existing conditions account for the vast majority of the mortality rate in both cases.
I do not know about such matters adequately. I have peripheral knowledge about one aspect of the topic from prior professional training. I have some completely amateur peripheral contact with other aspects of the topic. I am being deliberately vague, but I mean to emphasize that the topic is complicated. It includes such things as microbiology, Chinese ways of looking at things, media customs and control of media in China and internationally, epidemiology, statistics, Chinese everyday customs, propaganda. I have read diverse news items. I would love recommend one reference as possibly the single best thing to look at, but I would also want to suggest that I distrust it as possible planted propaganda, even though it’s probably really good for the most part. I think the subject may be that complicated.
In other words, I do not know. I personally am inclined to be concerned. I have heard reasonable sounding arguments against the arguments comparing to the usual # of influenza deaths. I personally recommend caution about sources and conjecture. If it is not this virus, or if this virus is bad but mutates to something pretty benign, something nasty could appear next month, or you might just come down with influenza.
Thus, it is always good to maintain good hygiene. It is good to look up how to do it. In the best of institutions the pros often neglect it. Washing hands is critically important. Doing it well takes effort and time — and soap. The alcohol cleaners help with many but not all bugs (and have to dry before having the full effect). Masks help with many bugs, some far more than others –the best have probably generally been sold out. The current bug like many may enter through eyes, so as in any year rubbing eyes w/o having washed hands is not ideal. So hygiene–yes. (I have read the speculation that the reason SARS did not spread in Japan is that Japanese supposedly typically wash their hands and faces immediately upon entering their houses–I suppose ditching their shoes does not hurt.)
So I think it is a huge question mark and should be treated that way, but as always we should maintain good hygiene. This lecture is off topic, but I think it is not improper.
If the bug proves to be a dud biologically it already must have had quite a bit of economic influence–mainly deleterious (travel especially) but good for mask manufacturers and if people are smart soap manufacturers.
If the right hand doesn’t get you the left one will! 🙂
100% agree Northstar
Remember SARS and EBOLA
early on there were apocoplyptic predictions and while these were serious viruses which caused local pockets of trauma and death.
They never went to nearly the extremes predicted.
You post here puts thing into perspective
Thanks
PS On another site I saw a graph showing that at the early rate of transmission there would be 100,000,000 people infected in 3 weeks or less.
This is absolutely fear mongering IMHO.
Well, that seems like an invitation, or at least permission, to provide the reference to which I referred:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lk5XkhUKMDM
The main speaker, obviously a Brit, describes himself as a physician with US experience who has been living in China training Chinese M.D.’s and is married to a Chinese physician. The other is a US medical person, apparently a physician, who also lives in China, also married to a Chinese citizen, who I infer may be a medical person. They both give you to understand they are fluent in Chinese and know the customs well.
Among other things, they describe their Chinese medical contacts as absolutely petrified because poorly supplied and are saying that the gov’t has been covering things up badly, that the thing is way out of control, They also describe much of Chinese hygiene as atrocious even compared to other generally poorer countries (they give Vietnam as an example) and suggest with some graphic, at times maybe disgusting, detail on how and why this thing may be spreading like crazy.
I have no who idea about their credibility or their backgrounds. If someone were paying them to turn viewers against the Chinese gov’t and Chinese culture, at least in regard to hygiene and competence in preventing spread of disease, that entity would be getting its money’s worth. Also, they describe long periods of infectiousness while the patient is asymptomatic, poor reporting, and all sorts of official malfeasance. They describe that the gov’t was slow to react and let infected people go all over the place starting in Dec. Whether heavily slanted (and thus in its gist dishonest) or not, it is highly effective and in details to some extent clearly well-informed — and rather graphic in some respects. It is long, but you can skip around.
But it may not be a hit piece just on China. They may just be opinionated. The main speaker seems to use Oklahoma as a somewhat negative example at times–perhaps there are too many deplorables for him in both China and OK for him. Look and decide if you choose.
In any case, I would spend some time with the video before being too dismissive.
(I can also provide a reference where it is argued that the whole thing is way blown up out of proportion. I also have suspicions that this reference could be propaganda. However I believe it is important to be cautious, so I prefer the one that emphasizes hand washing.)
Irrelevant possible little correction. I started to listen to a touch of it. I wrote that the main speaker was obviously a Brit. As a child I could tell English from Australian accents like night and day. I lost the ability somehow. Maybe he’s an Australian. Don’t know.
In any case, he describes himself as a physician who has been working in the US who trained Chinese physicians in China wanting to come to the U.S. how to do things. Both are speaking from the US, married to Chinese, and I had the impression still living in China at least part time.
For the Record (written much later)–
These 2 have apparently put up many videos on You Tube on the new corona virus since the one I cited.
Though married to Chinese physicians, contrary to what I wrote, I now infer that neither are physicians. They refer in a recent video to having had a motorcycle repair shop in China. Both now are in L.Angeles. The one who speaks the most is from S. Africa.
They are clearly well informed and are by no means necessarily bad sources if one considers them as possibly biased and (for all I know) paid to instill bias. If so, they are highly effective. They are apparently well known for their hostility to the Chinese government.
I did not watch their most recent video on the topic completely, but found it of interest.
The coronavirus hysteria is hyped by China as an excuse for their slowing economy; the lockdowns a reminder to the populace of who’s boss.
Wash hands before drinking the Corona, and we’ll all be fine. 🙂
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17933389
“In healthy adults, after 30 days of moderate beer consumption the parameter describing the non-specific immunity improved when compared to the basal situation.”
I am concerned. I have young children so perhaps that is skewing my emotional response. There are now more people affected by this virus than during the entire 9 month outbreak of SARS. The chinese government has attempted to quarantine 10s of millions of people, they don’t do that for the seasonal flu. As always, hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
I believe it is more of a strain on infrastructure that will prove an issue. This may in fact be very treatable or non life threatening with say some small percent needing a ventilator etc. However, when 10k people of a major city are in the parking lot of a hospital not able to even get a bed. Well, now you see the problem.
Please see what Bob wrote about it in his last couple of paragraphs. If this is accurate you are talking millions infected by end of February. This thing also can have a two week delay on symptoms. What a worst case scenario.
sorry forgot to post his link:
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/moriarty/moriarty012720.html