Negative
REAL rates for US 10 year treasuries have dipped below zero!
UBER low rates probabilities gaining steam by end of year… this is being priced in
Reminder how gold reacts to easing …
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Backed into a corner of their own making. Tragic.
But Today Gold Drops.
And Silver crashes ( down 2%)
Sir Patrick . Help me out here please
From that chart ..in 2011 Real rates went negative and continued to drop for 2 years
And Gold Topped in 2011 and continued to drop hard in to 2013
So negative real rates killed Gold ?
I have thought about this before.. as I was looking for correlation with TIP-SHY and Gold price… I did notice that gold topped while TIP continued upwards… I was tempted to theorize it was the “expectations” for the TIP that gold sniffed out and priced in it’s eventual drop, so by that line of thought, it’s the expectations of the end of neg rates killed gold! The idea for using TIP is directional help for gold, not particularly great at spotting tops. That is why weight of evidence is key to avoid single point of failures for an directional analysis. #workinprogress
Thanks Patrick
Good luck with the sleuthing
Difficult stuff
So IF Rates DO remain on hold we chop along in the channel . . . ?
I think there are more macro drivers affecting gold than I know.. but rate cut probabilities breaking out (and not the actual rate cut) really has turbo moved gold and silver recently (proven by TA applied to CME historical charts). Not many bullets left in Fed revolver… so enjoy these moves until they don’t work anymore! Also impacting are REAL rates… so if rates do not change and inflation expectations picks up… gold should also go up. Some moving parts to the gold valuation equation I would love to prove via charts… still working on it.