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I’m attempting to analyse and compare Silvers price action back in the 1980’s to now, but am unable to get a chart on Stockcharts that goes back before 1980 (I have no idea why, as I used to be able to go back to 1970). Regardless of that though, I’ve looked very closely at what’s happening now, and this is my advice…
Add.. a close below 30 week simple MA .. or 12 month simple MA… all GREAT reasons to close all positions and wait until next clear signal arises.
Agreed Patrick. Between us all here, we should be ready to react if that were to happen. The next few days/weeks will need careful monitoring.
All of the above seems by and large reasonable.
Nevertheless I wonder about relying too much on silver-based signals as opposed to gold-based signals for jettisoning PM assets.
–> We know silver prices are erratic. Its buyers and sellers tend to act especially emotionally. The silver price is nicely sensitive, but maybe too much so, and may tend more to give false signals. Silver’s market is small compared to gold’s (which is in itself relatively small) and can get pushed around too easily.
–> If there is anything to the distinction of between a deflationary crisis and an inflationary crisis, silver may give wrong signals for gold. Gold may do well in either but silver perhaps not so well in a deflationary setting. (I have problems with making a firm distinction between the two under some circumstances, but the distinction is not meaningless).
Therefore I would think that the idea of using silver’s moving averages as a sign to dump most or all of PM assets is probably going to be less reliable than using gold-based moving averages.
I think it’s perfectly appropriate that we not get to excited about precious metals’ prospects. Their prices and the PM stock prices could do extremely poorly at any given time, including now.
Nevertheless, I have just looked at a bunch of weekly charts of some of the larger producers and royalty companies. BVN looks horrible, even badly oversold (Peruvian politics??? copper???????? don’t know). Otherwise to my somewhat subjective survey they look either really great to me or indeterminate looking a bit inclined to explode upwards. The charts did not announce any immediate collapse to me but instead suggested a fair possibility of the opposite.