Loading ...Silver – Put Up Or Shut Up
It’s time for silver and the miners to either confirm the long-term PM bull market, or let us know it’s all been a mirage.
All the evidence I can find, and the years of charting on here gives me 80-90% confidence that we continue towards the old highs from here. There is a 10-20% probability (in my mind) that something else transpires, for reasons I have either overlooked or failed to consider correctly. That’s all I can say at this point, except good luck to everyone here.
I’d like to agree completely. If this were a choice on an *opinion* poll, it would likely be the one I’d choose and maybe wish I could vote more than once.
I am not sure that the data I know of justify so much confidence about the chances though.
True, chart after chart of multiple time frames, definitely including longer term ones, shows upward trends. There is thus a strong upwards bias. Moreover various charts tend to show a curvature convex downwards, in other words with the upwards trend now becoming steeper. (The steepening curves are often manifested as higher lows. This perspective is a more traditional way of looking at it than looking at curves I suppose).
There are any number of reasons why I can imagine gold would edge up or shoot up now. With silver I can see many scenarios, though not as many and not as clearly.
Therefore I think it’s absolutely reasonable to think that it’s likely that silver and silver stocks go up from here, whether gradually or abruptly. I expect they will (and feel pretty excited about the possibility of imminent big advances soon to tell you the truth — am heavily invested).
I do not however see any reason why they can’t either just trade in recent ranges for a frustratingly long time or else temporarily go annoyingly low (Ag down to ~US$9.5 even, ~$14 anyway, for example). Why not?
Why can’t they just behave poorly for another 6 months or 2 years then go way up contrary to my expectations?