Goldtent TA Paradise

TLT breakout Confirmed

1. Alfa8 says:

   January 24, 2020 - 12:03 pm at 12:03 pm

   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MHQK3yo9CBA

2. Steins1 says:

   January 24, 2020 - 12:58 pm at 12:58 pm

   From Carl:
   I turned on the computer today and noticed that natural gas, oil, and most metals are selling off. This is potentially very bad news in many ways. It implies that demand is declining in the core aspects of the economy where oil, copper, aluminum and other commodities are used to produce items. It suggests that while one segment of the economy, primarily some technology companies are still attracting money, other segments that would be inflationary including energy, metals, shipping, manufacturing, and other basic industry companies are in various states of collapse. This suggests we are heading for deflation, lower interest rates and shrinking demand. The haves who are working for or invested in a shrinking group of technology stocks will feel fat and sassy. If your committed to the wrong sector professionally the job opportunities are going to shrink and shrink.

   “From a commentator”

   “The U.S. Treasury just recently released final numbers for the fiscal year 2019, and it bears bad news about the debt. Last year’s national figure checks in at $1.02 trillion.

   You don’t need an experienced analyst like me to tell you that figure’s quite big, but here’s an indication of how big it actually is: 2019’s total is up 17% from 2018, which itself was up 28% from 2017.

   In total, the total U.S. debt right now is $22.7 trillion, $11.2 trillion higher than it was in 2009. Yes, we’ve added an average of more than $1 trillion each year in the last decade, and expect to run a deficit in the trillions each year for the next 10 after that.”

   Remember, if interest rates start climbing the amount of interest being paid on debt would explode. It would be devastating to the U.S. dollar and all segments of the economy. Because commodity prices are as a group declining there is little chance of interest rates increasing, at least in the short run.

   That means eventually interest rates will go far lower. The only positive of low interest rates currently is that it keeps interest expense low for large borrowers. Everything else about low interest is bad news. Pension plans and other retirement plans are already stressed because of low interest rates. The side effects of low interest rates, loss supply chains, and low taxes are going to be fully recognized by year end 2020. Add to the problem the need of consumers and corporations to pay off debt because of a shrinking economy and things could be very ugly by the end of 2021 to 2022.

   Also low interest rates really mean decreasing demand causing deflation. Eventually it becomes harder and harder for some business sectors to be profitable. They keep lowering prices to try and maintain cash flow. That has already happened to non-internet retail, oil and gas services, and energy production. There have been a large number of bankruptcies in small, private trucking companies and one that was public. Shipping rates continue to decline suggesting shippers are struggling to maintain volume. Margins at manufacturing companies have been hurt from the loss of supply chains. I also believe there is now an informal boycott of anything made in the U.S. by the international markets because of the dislike of Trump throughout the world. Tariffs dampened imports, but export volume has also declined. Now if buyers, the other 96% of the world’s population that lives outside of the U.S., believe they have a choice, they will buy something made in China, India, Europe, Russia or anywhere else before buying American.