Low Volatility in the Currencies
Here is an interesting observation from an appreciative Reader here.
I have been a long time PM and miner investor (since 2000) and gave been following gold tent for years. I really appreciate the community there.
I don’t need to post or anything, as I think the current TA analysts, especially Northstar and Patrick, are doing an absolutely outstanding job.
However, one very interesting observation that I don’t think has been pointed out yet is the unprecedented low volatility that has developed over the last 4 years in the swiss franc and the yen. In particular, if you look at Bollinger bands for large time frames for the yen ($XJY) and the swiss franc ($USDCHF), for example, 600 days or 200 weeks, you will see that the Bollinger bands have tightened up to a level that hasn’t been seen in at least 30+ years.
The bottom line is that huge amounts of energy have been stored up over the last 3-4 years and are likely to be unleashed imminently. Of course, its possible we can get an initial large head fake (that will widen the bands), only to reverse and head in the opposite direction. Really, the take away is that the volatility in two currencies that have been highly correlated with commodities and PMs is about to ramp up big time (I would guess that a massive and sustained move is no more than a year away).
Pleased to meet you xxxx
Glad you enjoy the community we have attracted at Goldtent.
Me Too ?
This is a good and under appreciated observation
I will post it at the tent and see if it can spark some discussion
I have been posting that I think the Fiat Currencies are going to remain relatively stable against each other
I even think there has been behind the scenes agreements to this effect…as ALL Countries want and need to devalue against the others…
BUT THAT IS A USELESS EXERCISE in the long run.
So This means that Gold finally becomes the final arbritor of the value of any one currency..and as has been demonstrated at the Tent…many / most currencies are at all time Lows vs Gold …..and the US Dollar is trending that way
I cannot for the life of me imagine the US Dollar Tanking like NorthStar and others are expectiog…that would mean the Euro would have to soar…
Why would it soar ? No way !
So while I see and appreciate your point about low volitility…there is no rule that says this cannot continue indefinitely if as I suspect all major currencies are now basically pegged to each other with minor variations of course.
Cheers
Fully
This is a very valid and interesting observation. Time will tell of course, but I see no problem with the Euro strengthening as there is increased clarity regarding Brexit. Either way, we will find out soon. Unless the inverted arc fails for the Dollar, I continue to expect a substantial decline.
If the Euro strengthens…from what I UNDERSTAND it destroys a lot of countries ….Italy France Portugal Greece to name a few.
But it is far more complex that a small fry like I can understand…so we shall see
Thanks MR.X. I put those ideas of yours in my rabbit hole list… I had a fast look.. and the tightness of the ranges is impressive… indeed lots of energy. CADCHF also has been in a super tight range… can’t wait to get some meaning out of this.