Fun Times
Jan 18-19, 2020- Martin Armstrong’s Major date and turning point is coming soon. He says this will mark a major turning point in confidence towards the private sector from the government sector. People will completely lose faith in their governments.
What do we see going on? A war for survival by one party with a severe lack of evidence to stop the head of another party from showing their crimes. The crimes are being exposed. The FISA report is the first step. Durham report next. Will this peak in mid January?
I personally think the D party will be in serious trouble. I think the markets realize the POTUS is going to benefit and be in office 4 more. Sorry D’s.
But what about this turning point from government to private and how makers are supposed to turn in Mid-January? Where will people turn and what will benefit?
I’m hoping the United States stock markets continue to go sideways consolidating above their major breakouts waiting for the next run up.
I’m thinking many other countries governments, which will be seen as conspiring illegally with the D’s pre-2016 election through the 5-eyes program will have faith lost in them. I think there will be a major- “Drain the Swamp” movement uprising begin globally similar to what has been started in the United States.
I think the dollar will begin like the US stock markets it’s next MAJOR move up.
What will happen in other counties? Not sure. But I believe a lot of foreign investors will send their money into the United States boosting everything United States.
Will bank collapses globally send the money into the United States? Perhaps.
Also into gold… but…. other countries’ investors will benefit from the price of gold rise but I don’t think United States investors will. Sorry…
Here’s something I wrote in August but never published. I then believed US bonds will benefit. Not entirely sure the more I learn but maybe. Here’s what I wrote in August and sent to Fully in a private email:
I advise one to read this man’s warnings below by
scrolling to the top of this series of Tweets and follow the thread downwards…
https://twitter.com/RaoulGMI/status/11590764313113231
His thoughts, charts, and what could happen match up with my thoughts, beliefs, and what the charts are showing me.
He’s saying the world is on the precipice of a Foreign Banking system collapse which would create an unprecedented demand for the global reserve currency in foreign countries…the U.S. Dollar.
As other countries began to struggle they would send their money to the U.S. dollar. They would buy our stocks, bonds, real estate, etc.
The Fed to prevent this would probably go to 0% interest rates to make our dollar less attractive but if the dollar is rising compared to other countries an interesting thing happens.
These foreign investors holding 0% bonds will get something called a currency return.
If the dollar is rising 20% per year compared to say the Euro, then Europeans would get a 20% return return on a United States government 0% bond.
If the same European investor buys into the U.S. stock market which goes up 20% while the dollar goes up 20% then their return would be 40% for that year.
Seeing this happen there will be a mad rush all around the world to be in all items in the United States including bonds, stocks, and real estate.
BASIC SCENARIO FOR EXAMPLE PURPOSES:
All other currencies stay the same vs each other. Dollar strengthens back to the all time high of 165, which I think will happen.
This would be a 169% rise in the dollar. If this happens instantaneously without any other prices moving commodities and foreign currencies compared to the dollar would fall 41%.
Skip below this math if you don’t want to see it. Resume reading where the next line this one below is:
—————————————————
165/97.5= DOLLAR increases by 1.6923 or a 169% increase.
1/1.6923= .5909
.5909 is now the number to multiply times a commodity/currencies to see how much they will be in dollars.
They’ll go down .5909 which is .4101 or 41.01%.
I’ll spare you the math. This means commodities and other currencies against the dollar fall by 41%.
Commodities and foreign stock investments priced in dollars would go down 41%.
.5909x the crb at today’s 179.07= 105.8
Look at Rambus’ chart and see where that puts the CRB in dollars! It sends it to the “major support zone” he identifies at the bottom of the chart.
Gold:
.5909×1497= $884!!!
If gold doubles in all currencies at the same time but goes down 41% in the dollar here’s the price of gold: $1770.
Canadian/Euro/Yen etc would see the price of commodities barely move. They may even see the commodity prices rise slightly when Rambus’ CRB chart fulfills its plunge…
The dollar strengthening would cause the price of commodities in dollars to drop like a Rock.
A foreign investor like yourself seeing what’s happening, desiring to get the best return, will want to put all of their money into US stocks, bonds, real estate etc worsening the dollar rise and their own currency fall vs the dollar!!
If money is pouring into the U.S. stock market it won’t go down.
Plus the businesses will have input costs like oil at $15. Copper at 0.50, lumber cheap as heck, food costs cheap as heck. Businesses will thrive with low cost inputs increasing profits and more businesses will build in America. I think there will be a massive flood of businesses returning to the United States especially if we no longer get raped by foreign country trade agreements. ????? That’s my guess. Makes sense to me but may be wrong.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jrvgwK_te9o
That’s all possible, but there are a lot of ifs, buts, and maybes there. Interesting thoughts though. The charts will lead the way as always 🙂
Martin Armstrong s Full of SH!T
NO ONE has ever said when asked here that they have made money following his Bullshit Models.
I agree that MA seems to have a decent grasp of major trends. He’s a lot like Prechter, in that his real strength is sociology and history, more so than trading. More than most crystal ball types, anyhow. His record from the 80s and 90s is unequalled.
But I see A LOT of his market related work these days, through colleagues, and I never pay ANY attention to his timing calls via his grid. It may very well be accurate and useful, but I can’t make heads or tails of it on a trading time frame (which is the critical part). Part of that is that he needs to take a course in remedial English because he tends to be opaque. And that’s programed into Socrates too from what I’ve seen.
The Public to Private shift has been ongoing since the PIIGS crisis, if not before.
But yeah, everyone I respect is pointing to issues with sovereign bonds (R Pal) or corporate bonds (Grundlach and Rosengren) or both. And Armstrong this afternoon posted his view that central bankers have now also lost control of short rates (which is what they “DO”). Now ZH has a piece out also today that the Fed is prepping for the repo crunch with $500B in funding facilities for the year end. Guess they got the message!! But will it be enough!??!?!? 2020 will not be dull.
Definitely won’t be dull indeed! All the dirt both parties have will be flung in all directions on top of the potential issues you bring up… Fun times. Need me some popcorn 🙂
Chuck Capitalism is built on consumerism…and US consumerism is built on technology…China has the consumers and will soon have the technology…USD decline…JMHO
Thanks PC
A Contrarian perspective thanks for your thoughts Chuck. Any perspective on Europe or China?
I think the Euro is going to suffer really badly as England exits and there’s pressure for more to exit.
If you look at the Chinese stock market it mirrors the bitcoin chart. I think both will suffer as America brings back some manufacturing and the dollar roars.