Goldtent TA Paradise

The cycle vs the Fed

1. Fullgoldcrown says:

   December 6, 2019 - 9:24 am at 9:24 am

   Thanks Alex but this kind of analysis is way over my head

   Whats the bottom line ?

   Buy Oil ? Not Gold ?

   • pedro_deleon says:

     December 6, 2019 - 10:02 am at 10:02 am

     “Whats the bottom line ? Buy Oil ? Not Gold ?”

     You must not have read the whole piece, Fully. You have to get through it all. Then you’ll get answers to those.

     The other bottom line is some analysts operate on a completely different mental and empirical and analytical construct than most others. Like Snyder with his focus on eurodollars. This fellow seems to be like minded.

     Go back through history, and there are tons of ‘experts’ proclaiming their view of how the world works. Eventually, their views are overtaken by smarter folks with a different angle [Thomas Kuhn]. This guy has a sharper pencil, perhaps. At very least he’s in the dialectic’s camp, tracking action and policy reaction. AND he’s monitoring the specific language of the Fed heads, as with Eric’s remarks last week. You have to do that, imo.

     His LT view also gets my attention (of course):

     “If this was up above +5%, and expected to stay there, I would be fully on board with the market’s cyclical rebound narrative. But it isn’t. It is at -2.0%. That signals growing deflationary pressure offshore. In my view, this will drift into global deflationary bust territory over the coming months; at -5% and below, the deflation offshore tends to spread to the US, as deteriorating conditions and widening spreads for foreign earners, exporters and resources companies start to infect broader credit and equity markets. “