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Everybody would like to short the Longest Bull market in History right off the very Top
If you are trying this with leverage ( 3Xers)….Good luck is all I can say.
I used to try this and got burned every time.
Even when there is a good sized decline….short covering rallies will kill you.
You need nerves of steel and money to burn.
IMHO
Yep. Don’t catch a falling knife… and don’t try to stop a rocket ship on it’s way to mars!
Not really sure I want to play the general market much, especially when there are so many extra things going on as we approach the end of the year that can cause extra distortions (changes in liquidity, portfolio shifting…). If it were a stock that I were interested in buying because of its fundamentals I’d usually go for it around the 50 day moving average, but here I’d be a little bit averse buying it into a moving average that is quite this steep (conversely, I also like to avoid buying into moving averages that are starting to sag too much). I’d probably buy it around 193 where there’s a little recent horizontal resistance, or maybe wait for it to go down there and then go back up to the 50dMA. I might actually put a little play money onto such a trade, but only a little — probably just watch for entertainment.
I too would be a little concerned either about the falling knife situation unless I really wanted it badly even though I suspect its going back up soon.
Other people’s opinions? How do other people do things?
I used to be a real OCD lunatic spending lots of time with numbers and statistical software I no longer have. Now I more or less eyeball things.
Another way I might use nowadays to decide when to buy this (again, I’m assuming that hypothetically I were to want to buy it on the basis of fundamentals but that I’m not desperate to buy it) — I might look at the peaks of the 50 day MA. I’d get ~192 as a good place to buy–correlates fairly well with the number 193 I gave above. Alternatively, maybe I’d look at where the MA was gently up in June-July and extrapolate to now and get about 189 as another relatively sane but more conservative buy level. I have no idea whether these are good ideas. I am just indicating what would go through my mind with this chart and no other charts. Again, I’m curious what other people would do.
I play this game, with full on positions too.
“How do other people do things?”
I have rules of engagement.
Red … stay out .. yellow .. wake up … blue .. pilot positions … green, all in.
The colors depend on what the 3D chart setup I use tells me … multi time frame.
Re the inverse Qs, we’re transitioning from blue to green over the course of this month to next, it appears. For now, only pilots with tight stops ahead of the c leg down for Qz.
Expecting another ramp before the bigger dive EOY or early Jan.
Oh, and EW helps.