Loading ...pedro’s Long Term Gold EW Count
Back in 2015 when pedro deleon showed up here he posted this dismal count .
He is standing by it .
It has been saved under “Keepers”
Most readers cant find “Keepers” because it is way way down the sidebar.
pedro has been pointing us all to this analysis lately.
Nobody is responding so here it is.
(Trust me this is for Open Minds only ) ( Mine does NOT open this wide 🙂 )
https://goldtadise.com/?p=351923
So have a look and let us know what you think .
I will be first to comment
pedro you are a strait shooter always saying what is on your mind and what you believe .
I will reply in kind
1….This is very ambitious and unique work and I commend the effort
2….I COMPLETELY and UNEQUIVOCALLY reject the premise !!
I reject that the period from 1800 to 1929 has any wave count at all and also I submit this period is completely meaningless as to the here and now.
The price of gold was basically a fixed and uniform price all that time at $20 ….( for over 100 YEARS !)
With the brief exception of that period of civil war.
HOW on earth you see a wave structure in that is beyond my imagination.
3…There is an implication here , if I am reading this work correctly, that the next move for gold…and like right now …is to $250 — $500 !
To this I say with all sincerity…I just don’t see it…But if you are correct and the Great Debt Implosion we have all been expecting is here and now….Then one must admit this is possible.
So once again you bring up a few posts which show gold going up and then you dig up some stuff showing gold goes down to $500?
I think the problem with this and the majority of charts is that they cause paralysis analysis and major swing trades
Silver taking an additional 10 years to base yoh , Commodity index crashing , gold to 500? Any other sensational charts ?
Maybe a uranium one ?
There are many different postulations presented here at Goldtent all the time.
This one is pedro’s considered and very educated opinion and it is based on the theory that the debt implosion is here and now.
Can this idea be dismissed out of hand ? No !
IF you cannot look at all sides they you have already made up your mind and the case for you is closed…so read no more and place your bets.
Perhaps this is a case of Cognitive Dissonance “According to cognitive dissonance theory, there is a tendency for individuals to seek consistency among their cognitions (i.e., beliefs, opinions). When there is an inconsistency between attitudes or behaviors (dissonance), something must change to eliminate the dissonance”
I have a masters in psychology and understand what cognitive dissonance is –
I just think your constant chart posting flipping from one extreme to another is utter fear mongering –
I’m calling It as I see it – you sensationalize the most extreme charts so yes I’ll call you out on it
1….This here analysis is NOT my work. I am moderator and I am re posting this for a valued member here who has been pointing to it for a while.
2….I posted a very good chart showing the commodity complex is leaning towards a big Drop on a LONG TERM CHART. It is a valid chart…sensational or not.
3….I posted a short term ( daily ) chart showing Gold Stocks on the verge of a breakout up. SHORT TERM !
4….I posted a Long Term Silver Chart showing a fractal of the 1980 parabola and crash and the present situation There are striking similarities sensational or not. Others saw that chart and pointed out differences which I accept with thanks. You on the other hand can’t handle what it implies nor refuted it with any analysis …all you can say is it is a pain in the ass for you because it doesn’t fit your present thinking.
Sorry …but if you are a master of Psychology I am sure you have heard of Voltaire.
“Uncertainty is an uncomfortable position but certainty is an absurd one ”
and
F. Scott Fitzgerald
“The test of a first-rate intelligence is the ability to hold two opposed ideas in mind at the same time and still retain the ability to function.”
You posted this chart to suit your own means – you stated in your intro “ no one responded to it so I’m posting this again “ we are all familiar with pedros analysis and have had discussions about it
I’ll call you out on it – it’s part of your MO – sensationalism and big letters like a man ready to jump off a cliff because silver is about to drop a dollar –
So let me get this clear – you constantly try to get people to sign up to rambus and post charts about major breakouts in world indices and inflation taking over
Then you post chats of major collapses in commodities
You then post charts on silver basing for years and years to come
Gold dropping to 500
Deflation now
Anything else I miss ?
I don’t really see the point in actually having discussions with you since you will merely post another sensational chart
This place is for grown ups.
A lot of people post charts with major implications.
You are correct…Rambus is showing major breakouts in US Equities….those who believe this work will likely get on that train.
I posted a Chart showing Commodities tanking…that is a real possibility too. . But my charts are Not even close to what Rambus produces
These two ideas are not mutually exclusive.Stocks Up commodities Down …happens all the time.
I posted that silver chart to stimulate conversation as silver does seem mired in a long term bear.and there iS a good fractal there.
Patrick and others convinced me there are differences in now and what was going on in the 1980s…that was a good point….
We had a good discussion.
This ew work is pedro’s work and my comment above was that I respectfully disagree and stated my reasons..
Instead of getting pissed off at all this great chart work and fundamental analysis why not state your opinion and back it up.
Instead of screaming “Sensationalism” why not show your own belief….You do have one right ?
What is Yours ?
Really You have 2 choices…Join the discussion or don’t join the discussion
But to try to terminate the discussion because its just TOO much for you is just plain childish.
sheesh.
Anyone can start an EW count at “zero” going back to 1999, or 1971, and chart a path.
But without going back further it will almost certainly be wrong because its out context.
Its entirely possible that my count, in total, is wrong. Sam’s VLT count is slightly different. I’m open to his point of view.
For folks here looking at this analysis for the first time, the question I would ask is simply, how has the call gone from 2014/15 to the present? Compared to others vehemently claiming a new bull. Science says make a prediction from your theory, and see if it works out. For the record, I think c of B isn’t done yet and we see $1600 or so next year. Then, I suggest paying attention the Mad Dane …. and Daneric … and all sorts of other wavers paying attention to gold (Avi aside although he’s mindful of the bearish angle). Could we ALL be wrong? Sure. But there’s math behind this all, not just hunches.
The debt that’s unpayable WILL STILL BE PAID .. either by the debtors or the lenders. And if its paid by the lenders, then they THINK their balance sheets are far stronger than they are in reality. (Cue Greg Hunter interviewing Rick Ackerman on Mad Max).
If you want a reasonable local EW count for gold, here’s one worth a look (Breeze aka Art)
https://www.tradingview.com/x/Up6AXRGz/
Oh, and some calls are no big deal, a shrug either way, with hardly any real consequences for most people.
This one is not like those. Its as portentous as they come. We’ve all read this one.
“There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved.”
We wavers have simply put this quote into chart form. And planned our lives accordingly.
touche 🙂
“There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved.”
After reading this paragraph in quote marks my perception of it’s meaning is the currency in which the credit expanded will be what collapses as the confidence in the purchasing power of it collapses. That is, no one will trade gold or anything of tangible value for it. So in the big scheme of things how can your wave count of a chart of gold priced in US dollar work if the above paragraph becomes a reality?
Actually that quote is from Von Mises of the Austrian School of Economics.
He is not talking about currency collapse , he is talking about Credit Collapse / Soverign Debt Collapse
a Hyper deflation as far as I understand it.
Everything of value gets liquidated and cash is king.
Ludwig von Mises
Born: September 29, 1881, Lviv, Ukraine
Died: October 10, 1973, New York, NY
“cash is king.” But that cash is not = to the cash being circulated today
Pedro, that trading view chart is very close to what Ronnie Fattel has been showing, wave 4 should complete and wave 5 will be another strong leg up. I am in alignment with that view.
My question for Pedro is if he believes his chart how is he invested? Cash? Bonds? DUST? Other inverse ETFs? Or a combination of all of the above? I agree that the credit collapse is inevitable at some point and so the question becomes how one invests whenever one feels the credit collapse is upon us. My bias is bullish for the short-term, but I am definitely paying attention given the FED is trying to paper over something in the REPO market. DUST could be basing, but it could base for a long time.
Hi Chas … not an “investor”. I trade the leveraged ETFs as an ambush artist. My work says load up on equity shorts after the current correction and a final rally leg ends. Could be late Dec … have to see how deep this drop goes first.
Do have a stash of PMs from decades ago. Plan to add considerably on the PM down leg, hedging with inverse paper PMs.
Thanks for the info Pedro. What is your favorite equity ETF short? I have circled SH when the time comes as I prefer to go unlevered. Good luck with your trading in any event.
SOXS as leading indicator. LABD (eagleseagle liked this too) for speed, HDGE for honesty, VXZ for a read on the longer term market tilt. All of the VOLs are also useful for validating index moves.