I’m keeping a close eye on this for the while… 1 month ago, we had 37% chance to be at 125-150 (at the jan meeting) … then we hard dropped to 15-17% chances. I’m looking for a slow climb back up to 37-40% area (resistance)… A break out will most likely occur once we close above that. https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html

Now.. you can see this on the historical graph for Jan 20 meeting…

And push it to the March meeting…

And even furthur at the Jul meeting …

You can almost see the future where this is going… each cut not happening now… doesn’t alleviate pressure on the probabilities of a cut.. but adds more pressure going forward that will get a cut! We are very much still in an easing cycle. I guess the inverse would be true if we were in a hiking cycle.