I had these crazy ideas last night… was there a link between gold prices and actual rate cuts? Further more, could I get ahead of the curve and see actual gold price movement while the probabilities of those potential rates were being digested by the market? Lastly, what if I could chart the “rate cut” probabilities and apply TA to them?

Well, thanks to cmegroup, they did the hard work for me! https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html

Here is the graph for rate cut probabilities back for the Sep 18th FOMC meeting…

Now here is the gold chart…

So, this is typical “buy the rumour… sell the news” type scenario. But now, you get proof via a cool looking chart! Helps crystallize that idea.

Don’t wait for the actual cut to play gold… but when their probabilities actually “break out”!

Edit: Adding some more scenarios…