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Anyone want to add their cycle analysis to this pretty clear chart formation ? I find the shorter timescale cycles very frustrating to say the least. What is very clear though, is that this is a pretty important decision point. It’ll determine whether we have to endure several more weeks, or potentially even months of an extended correction, or whether we have a very exciting lead up to Christmas. I’m somewhat torn, but sorry to say, marginally favour a much longer pullback.
Edit: Just seen Rambus post below. Adds to my concerns…
But remember Rambus is not always right. He was late to enter the move that began last December. I see a lot of bearishness everywhere, I think it highly possible everything surprises to the upside. The only person I know who has been correct since last December is Plunger.
Everyone is still in the bearish state from the 6+ year basing pattern … this is a bull market now … its not Bitcoin. The FED is losing control of Repo markets, economic numbers coming in are dismal, etc., etc.
Rambus chart posted below is just a Possibility as he clearly stated.
But a new twist that most are not considering.
In my opinion it is of only limited value to see who has been right and who has been wrong. Sometimes the greatest make error after error and vice versa for any number of reasons. Chance can play a big role. Of course, someone who has gotten it right all year does deserve positive notice.
What I think is more important are two things. One is to learn one’s own methods rather than to follow others. The second is to look at others and see what it is that they do right and wrong. I think it can be useful to subscribe to a service if one has learned that the author has a somewhat consistent tendency to get X and Y wrong and a tendency to get A and B right. The value of this point is especially pronounced if you understand why the author is consistently right or wrong about this or that. The service can thus be both a positive indicator and a negative indicator depending on the circumstances.
My opinions.
Hood points there Karl.
`”I find the shorter timescale cycles very frustrating…”
Is it possible to turn the frustrating nature of the cycles to your advantage?
About 15 yr ago I developed a system based on shorting the XAU when cycles seemed to get it wrong by saying to be long and vice versa. My system was way too complicated and time consuming to explain. I only paper-traded it and never used it in practice. I did make lots and lots of imaginary money though!
In other words, the system (if we assume it actually did work–a big assumption) seemed to be in keeping with the idea that when the short term cycles were wrong they were sometimes extremely wrong — and that one could lie in wait to take advantage of the times when cycles were overwhelmed.
(I wasn’t responding to your call for cycles experts. I was just commenting as someone who spent a lot of time playing around on the computer, mock-trading with short-term cycles I encountered. I am only vaguely familiar with standard cycle theory.)
Thanks Karl. I understand what you’re saying. I like evidence based forecasting which carries a degree of confidence (that confidence level will vary enormously, depending on the circumstances). I was really very confident that we were about to see a move of $150 to $300 when we broke out of the bullish wedge back in May, because we were right up against the edge of my ‘curved base’ formation. This time we’re not, and have scope to move down quite a lot more before we hit that ultimate support. Single systems have value, but (in my view) have to be set alongside all the other evidence. It’s basically an ‘ensemble’ forecast, which takes every single indicator, and prediction system to give a percentage probability of whether we will move up or down in the next few days/weeks/months. Very little is certain about the future, it’s really all about placing your bets on the highest odds outcomes. An old weather forecasting adage is worth remembering though…the favourite in a horse race doesn’t always win.
GDX is now on D.7 of a new short term Trading or Daily Cycle now but we may still see a lower low in weeks ahead. The Jury is out in my Cycle Book on a longer Intermediate Cycle Low (ICL) until Gold forms a weekly swing low which would require a move above 1525.80 and/or has a weekly close back above the 10wma currently at 1509.49 which we could see tomorrow, so we shall see.