Loading ...BLOODBATH IN PRECIOUS METALS MINERS
Some want to sugar coat today’s move.
But it is horrific
It is the opposite of yesterdays move and then some.
Yesterday Gold and Silver were Down pretty hard and the PM Shares treaded Water
Today Gold and Silver are OK but the Shares are Drowning !
Many Quality Miners are Down 5% 7% 10% and more
Breakdowns all over the sector !
Just a few
Having said that…Here’s a Plan
IF that bottom line goes …RUN Forrest Run !
Pretty much what rambus said no ? That it’s a correction and to sit tight ?
Not exactly
Its a correction yes
But Sitting Tight is not for everybody
He actually closed all his PM Positions…all 20 and is now in DUST/JDST…swing trading
“Its a correction yes”
Its a correction MAYBE.
Your falling wedge in XGD lines up with some of what I see, no doubt.
But your BTC Weed etc assessment tells me the tide is going out, and the speculative stuff goes first. The Dow tops last.
Mavericks inside the central banker cabal are getting louder. PAY ATTENTION!
Your last two sentences (“Mavericks….ATTENTION!”) are interesting and intriguing, but I don’t understand.
Would it be possible to elaborate? Do you mean that some US central bankers want to raise interest rates? That some non-US central bankers want to move towards diminishing (or ending) the current role of the US dollar? Or something else, or what?
Yes.
FT: “ECB’s Draghi ignored in-house advice on decision to restart QE”
WaPo: “European Central Bank minority opposed bond-buying stimulus”
Macroblogs “Draghi Steamrolled Over Objections From ECB’s Own Policy …”
Then there’s Rosengren and Mester objecting to rate cuts stateside.
Both dissented at last cut.
YF/Minutes “Fed officials were sharply divided over September rate cut”
Thank you, pedro. (Not sure where this will appear, but I am thanking you for your response to my query.)
Thank you for the charts.
My decades’ long perspective has changed. I used to lean heavily towards buy-and-hold. Tax considerations* and possible personal needs impelled me to sell stock far more aggressively in the past 6 wk than I’ve ever before sold in a short time. As I sold, I also realized that I was stuck too much in the old paradigm of high brokerage fees in an era when commissions are low and when unless there are outages it’s easy to buy and sell. Why not tend to go in and out of the market with much of your holdings looking at things short-short-term as the market unfolds? Why think about multi-month incomplete possible patterns and stops based on them?
Your suggested strategy does make sense based on the incomplete pattern, provided the stop is not manipulated or abused badly, or prices don’t crash right down through it. However viewing the XGD chart as I do, I think: why not just sell a lot if you haven’t already? Why not watch what happens more or less as it happens? The stops can be messed with just as much as the resistance of the apparent bull flag can be (false breakdowns etc). Why can’t XGD go down to a horizontal support at around 14.00 or 13.75? Why can’t it go farther down and play around with that red line that I suppose is the 200 day moving average (sorry, I don’t do stockcharts)? The stocks have been, as you note, trading horribly. It has been increasingly hard selling stocks. Buy orders for many smaller stocks are not generous and plentiful. Maybe things change soon for the better for holders of PM stocks, maybe not. I don’t know. Maybe they get a lot worse.
I myself do continue to hold onto lots of stocks since I think the long-term trends are up, up, and likely way up. (I’d bet analyses of long-term XGD charts would still show it up from various long-term perspectives.) I do hold much illiquid stuff esp in tax-deferred accounts in the hopes that there will be jack-pot type news releases and runups in metals prices. Everyone will have a different strategy, and that’s mine. I write as someone who holds stocks, not ETFs, and I have my own needs and perspectives.
[* I and my main tax adviser (who don’t completely agree in our understandings, and both of whom who may be wrong, have the concept that long-term capital gains benefits are not available for holdings in many non-US companies, and in fact there is punitive taxing for many of these under some circumstances if held for long periods. Many of these may best be held short-term, or under some circumstances if held for longer term sold and bought back later. Therefore it may be good for me to sell many and then think of trading or avoiding these types of non-US stocks. So tax considerations help push me into aggressive selling and becoming a reborn short-term thinker. But, again, the tax adviser and may be wrong.]
Last sentence> But again the tax adviser and I may be wrong.