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I Still believe Strongly that we are in a Gold BULL !
In a Gold Bull Surprises are to the Up side
I am not saying the following WILL happen…But it DID happen last time
Look at the 2016 move.
We had a 16% drop ….
It must have felt exactly like THIS !
But the drop failed to hit even the first Fibo before reversing violently to new highs.
Look at Today
Down 15% from the top
Still havent hit the first fibo
With all the geopolitical and US domestic strife as well as Fed stuff one cannot rule out a swift V reversal to new highs
So what should YOU do ?
I Don’t Know …
After careful review of the weight of evidence, and of my emotional threshold, my “panic” level is sub 1420. And as I’m a great contrarian indicator, you should probably buy when I’m selling! GULP!
All lies fully – ya preaching all lies ! The past is the past leave it alone ?
All no polar joking aside – yes we could replicate the move 🙂
Concerned NatGas is a Deflationary telltale…
An interesting — if (for me at least) somewhat disjointed, hard-to-follow and haughty — little piece today argues that 2016 and now have their similarities but also a significant difference in that deflation is more clearly starting to prevail now, meaning that the whole environment is different.
https://nftrh.com/2019/09/30/gold-bugs-should-not-look-for-conspiracy-says-this-chart/
I frankly do not understand his point with the chart with the CDNX much at all and do not put much analytic value on the CDNX for the reasons Fully has recently given — too much of a hodge-podge. However the chart at the bottom showing much lower TIP-to-bond ratios now versus 2016 does suggest the environment is much different now. Whether that means much and what it means I don’t know. His main point seems to be that deflation actually does seem to be taking hold now, contrary to what some people (like me) have been thinking — contrary to what happened on and following 2016 — and that the apparent onset of deflationary environment makes a difference in the two spikes in the gold price.
I am often done in by my own optimism, but it sort of looks like a flag forming on what was a nice flagpole. Time will tell.