Loading ...A gold-bug’s best friend are the non-reporting small speculators!
Hi,
Hers is some work I started doing in April (last low before current bull run), exploring different interpretations of the COT data… and how it can add some more edge in our risk to reward analysis.
Should complement the excellent work done already by Jordan I found here => https://goldtadise.com/?p=448585#comment-58965
I think the key is to clear your mind of pre conceived notions and biases.. and just observe with a clear brain (soooo hard…) and see if new patterns become visible.
Concerning players reported in COT data.. I’ve noticed they behave differently depending on the underlying commodity.. whether it be gold, oil, or corn! So.. there is no “magic” algorithm that can be crossed applied… or maybe there is.. 😉
Anyways.. check out this 15 min demonstration giving light on my thinking process… as I try to verbalize what I see…
Regards,
Patrick
Very nicely presented Patrick.
Could you enlighten us on the indicator and settings for your small speculators.
Checking out your YouTube channel at the moment.
Thanks
Hi Red Label,
It’s somebody else’s indicator that fetches the data from here => https://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/other_lf.htm
And I’m just selecting to show the total net position.
More recently.. I’ve added total longs and total shorts.. check this post https://twitter.com/badcharts1/status/1156277466698276866
Regards,
Patrick
I’m interpreting the latest COT data for gold as still very indicative that we are early in a potentially long gold bull run. Here is my latest take… https://twitter.com/badcharts1/status/1173352344752467968
Also FYI check out the COT reports of Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy @SaxoBank
@Saxo (registration required) = https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/authors/ole-hansen
@Twitter = https://twitter.com/Ole_S_Hansen/media
The reason to check out Ole Hansen’s work is that he uniquely focuses on the COT data for ‘Managed Money’, and as a bonus presents his research beautifully. As the blurb at the bottom of his reports says:
“In commodities, the open interest is broken into the following categories: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User; Swap Dealers; Managed Money and other.
In financials the categories are Dealer/Intermediary; Asset Manager/Institutional; Managed Money and other.
Our focus is primarily on the behaviour of Managed Money traders such as commodity trading advisors (CTA), commodity pool operators (CPO), and unregistered funds.
They are likely to have tight stops and no underlying exposure that is being hedged. This makes them most reactive to changes in fundamental or technical price developments. It provides views about major trends but also helps to decipher when a reversal is looming.”
Peace, success, out: P
Great stuff. Thanks Patrick 🙂
Very nice – What charting software do you use?
It’s tradingview.com! I think it’s the best out there for its versatility… really lets you express your creativity!