Loading ...Gold Forecast using FIB extension
We may not believe in any gold bug predictions/forecast but one has to trust Fib extension forecast.
Does history repeats??? Much of the technical analysis uses/depends on historical knowledge.
Breakout from a similar base in 1996 to 2003 gold finally rose to multiple height in 2011 to $1923 before having a serious correction. FIB extension for gold top was 1923 / 328 = $5.86 in 8 years.
Recent breakout from The Maginot line at $1347 gold may also reach another historical price.
Using the same Fib extension from 2003 breakout 5.86 ( Assuming same FIB extension from this breakout, a conservative at the most) gold could reach 5.86 X 1347 = $7897 in next 8 years.
Gold market follows FIB very well better than other markets.
Not a gold bug forecast??? Purely technical. LOL
What you smokin Bikoo
🙂
Last chart speaks to me
Had just revisited Alf Field’s Archive on 321Gold to refreshed what would Alf do when gold started in bull market just like it did in 1999. From 2003 to 2009 he posts his forecasts timely. AND it worked well. Afrer long pause by gold time MAY have come back.
FIB extension is no joke. It is real an for gold . FIB extension could be .768, 1, 1.28. 1.38 etc. Higher than 1 gets really unbelievable forecast so as DOW at 85 to 25000 in 1983 was.
In his departing speech :
“The fundamental conclusion was that the owners of the large stocks of gold would determine the future of the gold price. If they became net sellers, the gold price would decline. If they became net buyers, the gold price would rise. There were reasons to believe that they would be net buyers.”
What have we been hearing Central bankers are buying gold …..
https://goldtadise.com/?p=339852
More later.
may be U can draw last chart better than mine?? Like it.
Gold futures cracked $1500 this evening. Does not bode well for the shares. The shares have been been beaten silly and no sign of relief. The shares have led the metals DOWN.
I’m thinking that’s it for me. No more shares. Only options.
I may reconsider in the morning, but giving back all my gains for the fourth time in my life is just too much to stomach. And that’s where we are heading. Back to where we started…..
Options! Long ago I did options (almost always just buying them) like crazy. In retrospect I think of myself as a near-genius for almost having broken even — other than having squandered a massive amount of time. You must have developed yourself a good way of handling them.
I’ll just stick with the stocks. I may continue my minor selling binge –I did have fun selling somewhat aggressively yesterday and wish I’d been more aggressive — but am looking to buy. Northstar’s idea of the FOMC meeting as a time to buy is a cute one. However I will look at individual companies and their charts and might buy opportunistically at any time.
Options! Crazy, very difficult to make money, Remember mid 2018, we all thought the gold bull was alive, but it took another year for gold stocks to strongly outperform. With shares you have no restriction on time value, options only work if you buy at bottom of a market and can profit from strong recovery, otherwise very difficult. If you are nervous about volatility, you should either re-consider your allocation to gold stocks and maybe reduce size, as there will always be corrections, even in 2000-2008 gold bull corrections were very strong. Or you can choose to hold physical gold instead.
Sage Advice Alex
I made more money with call options in the now-dead run-up than I did with buying shares. If you can be disciplined and have a system that works you can make a ton of money in options – calls AND puts. Example: when the charts clearly signaled “correction time” how many went and bought calls on DUST? Or even considered buying DUST shares?
Yeah, most people lose their shirts in options. As do most people who buy shares. Do my huge losses from buying and holding shares keep me from buying shares once again? Nope. So I assessed why I had lost money in options, and developed a systematic approach that works more often than not. As long as I stay disciplined and force myself to hit the sell button, I do well.
It’s only a small sliver of folks who make money in the markets, stocks and options – not counting the professional crooks on Wall Street, of course.
But we play the game nonetheless
nice to know you know how to play options. I prefer shares, as even an ill timed entry can generate profit as long you are in a bull market of course.
Well, let’s not go crazy here. I didn’t say I knew how to play options. I did say I have a system of rules that if I follow them, it works more often than not.
The same could be said for shares, if one is willing to SELL into an obvious peak. It was clear as a bell that gold/silver were going to roll over – but I neglected to have a system of rules in place to SELL. So, when this correction finally bottoms, which could be as long as early 2020, I’ll re-enter and have my system of rules in writing in front of my face as I buy back in. And yes, Fully, we play the game nonetheless, because we are mortal fools and think “this time will be different.”
Same charts Northstar has been showing us for a year