Alf Field On..The Moses Principle….
This is a post from the Chartology Forum by member Bikoo99
who was a follower of Alf Field .
Here he picks up where Alf left off .
Thank you Bikoo99 for this thought provoking work
……………………………………..
Here attempt is being made to replicate what Sir Alf Field left behind in his last post on Gold’s EW count.
Using his analysis method a projection for gold is made:
Alf Field:
I promised that I would reveal some interesting things about the EW moves in gold since the $681 low in October 2008. That low was the start of the Major THREE wave. In Major ONE I mentioned that the corrections were 4%, 8%, 16% and then 32%.
We know that Major THREE will likely be longer and stronger than the prior Major ONE up wave. It is logical to expect that the corrections in major THREE will be a larger percentage than those experienced in Major ONE. This is how the first Intermediate wave of Major THREE developed in terms of London PM Fixings:
In Major ONE, the corrections tended to double when they moved up a degree in magnitude, so one must consider 26%, double 13%, as a possibility. A 21% correction from the peak of $1913 gives a target of $1511. A 26% correction would target $1416.
———————————-
Intermediate wave I of Major Wave 3:
From 681 to 1913= + $1232 +180.9. %
Current correction from PM fix high 1895 (correspond to Comex high 1913).
1895 to 1204.5= -$690.5 -36.4% (Sir Alf expected 26%)
This is another FIB number according to Sir Alf and higher degree of correction as gold moves higher (read above).
Assuming Corrective wave 2 ended and intermediate wave three of the major wave 3 began at low 1204.5. Major wave 3 will consists of three impulse waves up and two corrective waves total of five waves.
Impulse Minor wave i of intermediate wave I, 1204.5 to 1385 (March high) = +$180.5 +14.49%
Corrective wave ii intermediate wave I, 1385 to 1242.75 = – $142.25 -10.27% (corrections are higher degree than was before).
According to Sir Alf methodology of current wave should at least extend same $ amount or same %
Dollar amount extension:
From 1242.75 minor wave three should extend to 1242.75+180.5= 1422.75
Or % amount basis projection of gold extension is 1242.75×15%= $1429.16 (completes minor wave iii of intermediate wave I).
Alf: Secret to Elliott wave is based in corrections.
Not counting higher degree of corrections or extensions in Major wave three gold price extension can be calculated using the same extension as from $681 to $1913 and applied to current low of 1204.5:
In dollar terms:
$1204.75 +$1232 = $2436.4
In terms of %:
$1204.75 x 180.9% =$3373
That will be at the end of intermediate wave III. then expect another 36% corrective intermediate wave IV before intermediate most impulsive wave V begins.
His power of forecasting gold prices since 2001 was in amount of corrections.
Enjoy weekend.
It is all captured here:
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/field/field111611.html
……………….
Fully’s Note :The Above link is a MUST read ! On this day after the 43rd anniversary of Nixon’s Closing of the Gold Window .
August 15 1971
MUST Read !
……………
Edit…I stand corrected..initially I assumed Alf Field had passed away
He has simply stopped posting his work but is alive and well
Thank you Smithy for clarifying .
Fully
For the record, he not the “late” Alf Field but alive and kicking. Seems inappropriate to call someone “late” just for kicks in a public record.
Wow..if so this is my mistake
I understood from the author of this post that Alf Field had passed away
My appologies .
He has not posted anywhere since this linked post…is that correct ?
I’m not aware of any recent posts, he say he was retiring from posting.
Sorry for the “just for kicks” – I didn’t know you took someone else’s cue.
He has said gold needs to get above $1450 to prove the bullish case.
Thanks again Smithy
Hopefully Mr Field will return to posting sometime
He seems to have been quite an interesting character with a lot to offer
Best
Fullgoldcrown