I find it interesting that the support line for this move is at the same angle as the support line on the 2012/13 price collapse. It will vary from platform to platform and depends on how zoomed in you are, but on my chart it’s 77 degrees. However you choose to view it, the angles are the same. The MACD might be setting alarm bells ringing, because it looks like it might be heading for a bearish cross. However if you look at what happened on the way down, there was a mirror image – it looked like we might get a bullish cross. It never happened. The trap door opened and the MACD continued it’s plunge to somewhere around -98. There is no reason why the same can’t happen on the way back up. That would give us an extreme MACD reading close to +100 at the precise time that gold price (given the 77 degree angle of ascent) approaches $1800 – early 2020. I think this is now my ‘base case’ (most likely). Should this happen, that would be the time to take profits off the table. I would expect a ‘sideways chop’ for many months, with some good entry points at lower levels, allowing for some better gains in the years ahead.

I think I might know what would cause this to happen. I think we’re going to see a number of interest rate cuts in the Sept/Oct/Dec FOMC meetings. You might view these as ‘insurance cuts’, trying to hold back a recession. That would fuel the move to $1800. We may get a pause of some kind, to evaluate the effect, hence gold pullback/sideways price action. In my view it won’t be enough. At that point, we’re going to be up to our necks in a foul smelling pile of self-inflicted dung. With nowhere left to go, I think the Fed will dive into negative rates and all out quantitative easing, or some disastrous equivalent. That’s when we will have $2000 gold in the rear view mirror. There are other possible ‘black swans’ that could cause gold to hit the launch button before then (China for example). However it unfolds, I think it is very likely to take place in late 2020 or 2021. After a rapid ascent towards, maybe $3000, we have the mid-cycle pullback at the half-way point in the 16 year gold cycle. It’s likely that sometime in 2022 or 2023, we fall rapidly into a 2024 low. From that point onwards, through the mid/late 2020’s gold should continue to appreciate rapidly versus the US Dollar. All my own personal views, so no guarantees (a bit like forecasting the path of a hurricane – perhaps we should get the Donald to help us with his marker pens…).