US$: finally some bears?
JP recommends its clients to reduce US$ exposure in favor of the Euro, CHF and other international currencies.
Regarding gold it recommends clients to change their gold holdings from 0 to 5 % of their fx portfolio.
Given the persistent—and rising—deficits in the United States (in both fiscal and trade), we believe the U.S. dollar could become vulnerable to a loss of value relative to a more diversified basket of currencies, including gold. As we scan client portfolios, we see that many of them have far more U.S. dollar exposure than we feel is prudent. At this stage of the economic cycle, we believe this exposure should be more diversified. In many cases, our recommendation would likely be to place a higher weighting on other G10 currencies, currencies in Asia and gold (see chart). Talk to your J.P. Morgan Advisor to review your portfolio, and for more information on how to diversify.
We believe we are at an important juncture. On a real basis, the dollar stands currently more than 10% above its long-term average and on a nominal basis has actually been trending lower for 50 years.
The Dollar chart has looked bearish to me for a long time. People are probably getting tired of my ‘domed top’ chart, but the Dollar Cycle is dragging it down, not up at this point.