Goldtent TA Paradise

New Gold

1. Fullgoldcrown says:

   August 9, 2019 - 4:19 pm at 4:19 pm

   I like NGD more than I like Otto

   • Karl says:

     August 9, 2019 - 6:27 pm at 6:27 pm

     Personally I find “Otto” extremely annoying at times. If you were to ask “Otto” I suspect he would tell you that he finds himself extremely annoying. He can be pretty hard on himself, esp in his newsletter.

     He tends to put his most annoying aspects on his blog. His newsletter on the other hand tends to be detailed and nerdy though it too can be highly annoying, even infuriating, at times. However he tries to take good care of his subscribers. For example, he gives them ample warning of what he is going to buy or sell, giving readers at least as much chance as he does. He follows his selections carefully, tells them what’s going right and what’s going wrong with his selections, suggesting what is likely to get the axe, and what he’s likely to add to. Lots of warnings, lots of ongoing analysis. There’s so much detailed discussion of balance sheets, cash flow, etc, that it is hard to stay awake, but lots and lots of care. The exact opposite of a tout sheet. You could ask him for copies of old issues. That’s what I did.

     There is at least one type of recommendation he makes that he tends to get wrong. I don’t follow his advice on these, and have written him about these, but of course he keeps at it. There’s another type of mistake he routinely makes and has written about having made routinely, but he still makes this sort of error (as do I for that matter–not going to tell you what it is). The bulk of his suggestions I find superb. I don’t like a lot of some what he writes, esp some of his side-comments–some of it I hate–but I believe him to be honest and his work, especially his detailed analysis of companies, generally insightful. On the basis of his repeated analyses of NGD I wouldn’t think of touching it except as a short, and feel comfortable avoiding it except as a short and would feel highly cautious about anyone recommending it, or would at see it as a possible indicator of a major blind spot for that person. Not that we all don’t have our blind spots (as I noted “Otto” has his 1-2 blind spots, much as I have multiple blind spots).

     • Karl says:

       August 9, 2019 - 6:45 pm at 6:45 pm

       To clarify and elaborate:

       > I personally would not short anything in an up market (though “Otto” might, sparingly and sporadically, as a hedge, in special situations).

       > “Otto” — unlike some paid newsletter writers whom I will not name — will typically apologize to his subscribers immediately when his advice turns sour. In fact his apologies can be almost embarrassing because of the strength of his self-criticism.

       So as with other services, one has to learn how to use and take the bad with the good, but it is a fundamentals service that usefully balances TA services in a way that features, in my opinion, honesty and accounting-type + other (latin american risk for example) expertise, plus some annoying detritus.

       • Karl says:

         August 10, 2019 - 7:50 am at 7:50 am

         My review of IKN is not exactly correct. I could make some corrections where I have oversimplified or otherwise erred, but it is ok for general purposes.

         One thing that might amuse people though. While generally deferential to subscribers, he does give subscribers a hard time for going out and buying his recommendations too enthusiastically. He recently told any of his subscribers who bid up an illiquid recommendation to cut it out or else unsubscribe at once. They should not act like idiots who follow tout sheets but instead wait for the price to come back down after idiots bid it up after his recommendation (buying belatedly the way he typically does) or better yet all subscribers should refuse to buy it above the price before it was recommended. Or something to that effect.

2. Homer says:

   August 9, 2019 - 5:31 pm at 5:31 pm

   I like New Gold less now than I did a week ago… too much disappointing news in only one week’s time. What next?
   I was planning to sell my position at the open this morning, but I hesitated, and down she went. Oh well.

3. silverboom says:

   August 9, 2019 - 5:49 pm at 5:49 pm

   Ha. Had some calls but they were going nowhere, while others doing well. Sold the calls, now looking for the next “bargain.” SSRM looking good here, methinks.

4. Atomic says:

   August 9, 2019 - 6:01 pm at 6:01 pm

   Dilution at $1.20 is never good for a 2 dollar stock…

5. JSKauai says:

   August 11, 2019 - 12:46 pm at 12:46 pm

   The reason I posted this is because of an earlier Rambus post on NGD. I sold my entire position in NGD into the run up before quarterly results and put all those funds into TMQ, IMO is a bargain at these levels even though copper price is near it’s bottom of range.