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Chuck….you are in denial
Have you seen the breakouts in the silver stocks ?
PMs are hot right now
Very Hot
No reason to think this is just a 2 month rally
http://schrts.co/UVPvpuNt
Above the 50 and 200 wmas
WMAs turning up
Higher high and higher low
Room to run on TSI
Maybe. I do know what I’m not in denial about:
Silver closed on the major monthly H&S neckline.
The Gold:Silver ratio had a major breakout up and has just backtested.
Silver Monthly Log Line Chart
http://schrts.co/mAfccxTT
First time above 50 Month MA since 2013
looks like a clear line breakout too
I appreciate your charts and your courage, Chuck.
We all know that our friend, Bob, is somewhat unpredictable.
He could decide to go back into the basement and stay there for awhile.
On the other hand, he might want to come outside to play in the sunshine.
There have been so many devious fake-out moves with the TA charts lately.
My guess is that we could see another take down in the price of silver soon.
Also, I don’t think that gold has a lot more upside remaining before a correction begins.
Thanks Homer. Just laying out my thoughts.
Parabolic Chuck, I think you are onto something. Seems to me I recall a certain Rambus making a post almost a decade ago and getting hammered from all sides with counter-arguments. When I see folks jump on you so quickly it gives me pause and makes me rethink what’s going on and where we are at, and what, perhaps, is likely to happen next that few are expecting.
Thanks for laying out your thoughts.
Maybe. Or I’m really wrong! Lol.
That red line above may get hit in the week or month. Just want to see a close below the neck.
It is good to have a diversity of perspectives. This chart is interesting. It and its labels are pretty eloquent. Also, shorter term charts to me suggest that Ag may have gone up too fast.
Personally, I think the gold charts all in all look fine (other than short term: too high too fast) and that Ag will follow Au up, and I will hold on to my Ag stocks. Therefore I think the gist of this chart will be proven wrong. Yet I appreciate having this reminder of a different way of looking at things. Sometimes its good to have in the back of one’s mind the possibility of being really wrong, and this chart suggests that possibility.
You haven’t been wrong about the dollar yet Chuck.
Trump is doing everything he can to lower the dollar, another rate cute coming soon, QE4 starting in December…still the US is going up because it is looking better than _____(anywhere else)_____. Eventually all fiat currencies will no longer command faith. I could see short-term uncertainty hit the US and shake the dollar lower – with the Euro going up to fulfill USD cycles. Trump gets what he wants but later it takes back off again after we stabilize (politically). Either way the USD will be the last paper currency to die.
Not sure I agree with that. If Russia, China, Iran etc have their way, they will have a gold-backed system and a trading block, bypassing the petro-dollar. The Dollar would be in trouble at that point. The US debt to GDP (one of the worst on the planet) would become a massive problem, whilst countless other countries around the world have perfectly sustainable debt to GDP ratios. Check out where the USA and Russia are on this list http://worldpopulationreview.com/countries/countries-by-national-debt/
Not a H&SH pattern.
I like the counter-argument. It keeps me cautious. The odd thing though, is that on my earlier post, both the log and linear charts have broken above their necklines. Different software maybe ? Shouldn’t make that much difference though. I’ll be taking a very, very close look at it after the weekly close tomorrow. Thanks for your thoughts.
Edit – I called it a neckline, but what I meant was the long term support line.