Goldtent TA Paradise

Dr. Copper is Ailing

1. mpasatieri says:

   August 2, 2019 - 9:53 pm at 9:53 pm

   interesting…

2. JSKauai says:

   August 3, 2019 - 1:07 pm at 1:07 pm

   How long and at what price level does the reality of falling supply and rising demand take to kick in, months? years? Price?

3. Karl says:

   August 3, 2019 - 2:03 pm at 2:03 pm

   1. It was long the dogma that inflation and growth coincided. Keynes and all that. With the stagflation of the 1970s official and unofficial economists have tried various ways to sweep under the rug the problems of the gimmickry a lot of such economic dogma. If inflation and growth aren’t necessarily coupled, is it also possible that different commodities’ prices aren’t going to be coupled? For example, in the next few years how do we know that if copper prices go down nickel prices, cement prices, rare earth prices, and antique widget prices don’t soar; real estate prices soar here and plummet there; etc? For example, might trade wars cause some funny antics in pricing so that different types of prices get decoupled? (To me, as I’ve noted, the nickel charts on Kitco look nice while Al looks horrible and Cu in between.)

   2. I read a line that I wish I could take credit for. It was something like this: “Dr Copper has shown that he can be something of a quack.” (It comes from a technical analyst, Gary Tanashian of nftrh.com, whom “Otto” of IKN likes to cite. Since if anything I’m planning on cutting down on my 2 subscriptions, which don’t include nftrh, I don’t recommend for or against nftrh, but I want to give due credit for the approximate quotation.)

   3. I agree that it does not look good for copper prices at the moment.

   • Karl says:

     August 3, 2019 - 2:55 pm at 2:55 pm

     I should clarify. My rant was not against your interesting and instructive posting, silver fox.

     It was a somewhat tangential rant about those who draw strong conclusions about ‘deflation’ based on the recent market behavior of copper prices. I believe the proper conclusion is something like, ‘maybe so–looks that way at the moment.’ Even on the basis of the chart, the support hasn’t decisively broken and stayed down. Again, maybe, probably, maybe, — but the chart was instructive, certainly for me since I own Cu stocks.

     • Fullgoldcrown says:

       August 3, 2019 - 9:24 pm at 9:24 pm

       Karl…please look at my recent post regarding many Commodity related indices at new lows ….they are all trending down

     • pedro_deleon says:

       August 4, 2019 - 12:18 pm at 12:18 pm

       EVERYONE would benefit from greater clarity/precision with terms on this topic.
       Steve Saville was the first I ever read who harped repeatedly on it. For good reason. Sloppy lingo causes LOGICAL problems in this arena. Ie, cause and effect.

       “It was a somewhat tangential rant about those who draw strong conclusions about ‘deflation’ based on the recent market behavior of copper prices.”

       Inflation and deflation are MONETARY processes. Commodity price effects would be ONE consequence of either. Inflation and deflation are what bankers DO. They lend (or not), and in so doing, they undermine the value of existing currency units (unless the lending is economically productive! and yield more real stuff to buy.) Those terms — inflation and deflation — are synonymous with monetary debasement and revaluation. (And these have NOTHING to do with currency indexes, since they are pairwise. Ie, the dollar can rise simply because its being debased more slowly than say the euro or yen.)

       SO …. copper is falling due to slowing economic growth perhaps even economic contraction. It IS not deflation. It may be an effect of deflation. Or, it might be due to slowing growth in credit. So lets be sure to see clearly who is doing what to whom and why. Bankers are becoming less free with credit. Perhaps because they see EVERYONE EVERYWHERE IS UP TO THEIR EYEBALLS IN DEBT. And copper prices dropping are a result. And if we get (monetary) deflation sufficient to produce economic contraction, you can bet deflationary pressures will result in political pressures that will force bankers to lender to broker governments who will spend on behalf of citizens dead, alive or unborn, to keep the bubbles blowing.

       Right?

       • pedro_deleon says:

         August 4, 2019 - 12:20 pm at 12:20 pm

         “force bankers to lender to broker governments”

         ==> force bankers to lend to broke governments