Its the weekend. Students of the market (we, the Goldbugs) ought to take a few moments to study, to reflect on where we are, how we got here, and where we might be going.

Ray Dalio is an American billionaire investor, hedge fund manager, and philanthropist. Here he is sharing secrets of investment success. His most recent essay titled “Paradigm Shifts” should be, IMO, required reading.

PARADIGM SHIFTS
Identify the paradigm you’re in, examine if and how it is unsustainable, and visualize how the paradigm shift will transpire when that which is unsustainable stops.

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/paradigm-shifts-ray-dalio

THE ESSAY CONCLUDES…
Most people now believe the best “risky investments” will continue to be equity and equity-like investments, such as leveraged private equity, leveraged real estate, and venture capital, and this is especially true when central banks are reflating. As a result, the world is leveraged long, holding assets that have low real and nominal expected returns that are also providing historically low returns relative to cash returns (because of the enormous amount of money that has been pumped into the hands of investors by central banks and because of other economic forces that are making companies flush with cash). I think these are unlikely to be good real returning investments and that

    those that will most likely do best will be those that do well when the value of money is being depreciated and domestic and international conflicts are significant, such as gold.

Additionally, for reasons I will explain in the near future, most investors are underweighted in such assets, meaning that if they just wanted to have a better balanced portfolio to reduce risk, they would have more of this sort of asset. For this reason, I believe that it would be both risk-reducing and return-enhancing to consider adding gold to one’s portfolio. I will soon send out an explanation of why I believe that gold is an effective portfolio diversifier.