GDX and RSI: bull market behavior?
RSI of GDX is at 84, this is a very high level. The question is should we regard this as a sell signal (overbought) or not?
I believe it all comes down to the stage of the market.
Look at GDX chart over past 3 years and see what happened to GDX every time RSI got into overbought territory. It was an immediate reversal every time
Several market analysts referred to the RSI of 70+ at the beginning of June as a sell signal, in hindsight that was not a good call, but from a trading perspective it was sound advice.
Everything changed however with the GDX breakout above 23.50 level and the corresponding high RSI readings.
If we are in a new gold bull market then the high RSI is indicative of a major change in trend rather than an overbought signal. (bull market behavior)
I believe this is the highest RSI in last 5 years or more. Even higher than in the 2016 GDX run from 12.40 – 31.79. It’s clearly bullish.
Looking at the 2016 bull run in GDX (breakout at 15 level), the high RSI reading at that breakout level was certainly NOT a sell signal as the market advanced another 6.5 months afterwards.
Excellent Point Alex
In a rangebound market the indicators signal over bought and oversold
In a trending market they can be dismissed
It is weird…Highest daily reading in the history of the GDX and HUI. XAU had 1 higher reading in 1987 at 87. The second highest across all instruments was the bull trap of sept 2012. Seems more likely it will end up embedded as weekly is still normal.