I first started reading Goldtent during the final run up to the 2011 top (a friend and colleague showed it to me). I learned a lot about how useful/helpful chartology and especially cycle analysis can be. Many expected the fun to carry on, but the cycles said lows were due in 2008 and 2016. We all know the rest.The problem with being online is that I don’t know you, and you don’t know me. That being the case, I always give people the benefit of any doubt, and if they don’t seem open to a healthy debate, I’ll just move on. In climate science and forecasting I’m very used to this. The whole climate debate is clouded with cheap headlines and false data on both sides of the discussion. Science seems to be so mistrusted as a result. In fact, I’d go so far as to say it’s becoming cool to pretty much ignore and mock scientific research and advice. So many times I’ve been told by someone online that I know nothing and they have all the answers when it comes to changes in global climate. EVERY time it has turned out that they can’t even explain the simplest examples of atmospheric dynamics in the town where they live.  How can you hope to grasp global climate if you don’t even know how to explain the basic building blocks of the argument ?

Why am I telling you this ? First – I have very thick skin and am very used to angry response online (I don’t retaliate). Second – it seems some here are questioning my motives.

Sometimes I’m right, sometimes I’m wrong. 100% accuracy would be a neat trick, but using my science background does seem to help me. The main thing I’m trying to bring though, is an ability to present my thoughts in a colourful and easy to understand way. My current work specialism requires clear communication with emergency responders, both in written and verbal format. I’ve spent time broadcasting on local TV and radio, as well as the odd appearance on national TV. My previous job involved briefing RAF aircrew on weather conditions for low level sorties across the UK, so clear communication and hazard identification were essential.

Here’s an example of a chart I posted last October…

and this is what then happened…

I’m not always right, but on the other hand, I don’t shout about my successes either.  I stand accused of ‘talking my book’. Not a phrase I’m very familiar with, but it suggests I have underhand motives.

This is my position (and has been since we bottomed at $1050)…

1 – 2016 was the 8 and 16 year cycle low for gold

2 – The last 6 years has been a drawn out basing pattern (the bowl I’ve been drawing on all my charts)

3 – A break below $1220 region negates my thesis.

4 – A break above the $1350-$1400 resistance zone puts us firmly in bull territory.

5 – GSR may well rise further if (like last time) gold rises faster than silver for a little while. However we are at a historically high point already.

6 – Rising stock markets are common during a gold bull, so nothing to be frightened of.

7 – The rate hike cycle is done. More monetary madness is coming.

8 – The dollar is in a cyclical decline and will break down from the bearish rising wedge.

9 – Gold will break up from its bullish falling wedge (this has now happened).

10 – Gold will break out globally (this is happening now).

11 – Gold in USD will join the rest and break upwards (I have high confidence in this, but ALWAYS acknowledge the possibility that I am plain wrong).

I seldom post charts on individual stocks because they are each subject to very specific controlling factors. When I do, it’s because I feel they have something important to add to the debate. I make these charts regardless. If I were to stop visiting this site, I’d still be drawing them for my own use and posting on my Twitter feed. Humility is important here because weather forecasting and financial forecasting can make you look very foolish. The trick is to be able to spot when your predictions are going off track. So far, I don’t have any reason to question my overall view. As I’ve said so many times, a break below the base of my bowl, and especially the $1220 area will turn me bearish. This isn’t a competition to prove who’s right, it’s an attempt to use everything we all know collectively to inform our investing decisions. Please question everything I write, and if you can, present an alternative view (with charts), so that we can all benefit.

As always, thanks for reading.