Loading ...The Time Has Arrived – No More Pretence
I posted 6 months ago saying ‘You know it, I know it, Wall Street knows it, the Fed knows it. This is the beginning of the end for rate hikes, and the end of the beginning for the PM rally to come.’
https://goldtadise.com/?p=438017
Today, Fed Chair Powell has confirmed this to be true. In fact, what he said amounts to an admission that QE to infinity is the new normal
If this doesn’t scare you, it damn well should. It’s an admission that the Dollar will be sacrificed in a fatal, flawed attempt to paper over the cracks and keep the stock market afloat. The resulting crisis will (in my view) dwarf everything that has come before it.
This is why gold is breaking out of 5/6 year basing/consolidation patterns worldwide. When this sinks in, over the next few weeks/months, the Dollar will nosedive and PMs will catch fire. That is my prediction.
Should point out TLT is currently down >1%….rotation, I guess, out of bonds into equities.
Keep talking your book.
Sacrificing dollar means killing off foreign financing of US budget deficits, and the benefits of being the principal reserve currency. I doubt that decision will be made, although it could happen as an unintended consequence of other stupidity.
The NEED to resort to more Fed liquidity measures, is itself, the RESULT of dollar financing stresses overseas. Which were feeding a dollar short squeeze. Someone at the Fed with international expertise finally shook off Powell’s provincialism.
This ain’t your grandpa’s global financial market “conundrum”.
Pedro…the man probably is talking his book. But cut him some slack…he generates interesting charts that may or may not predict what’s coming.
My problem with NS’s theories is that Martin Armstrong has been calling for a RISE in bond yields. Could that happen if the FED goes apeshit and QE forever? Hard to believe.
Pedro – can you explain what you mean by ‘talking my book’. Thanks.
I’ll explain…he’s accusing you of touting your equity positions and trying to convince other investors to follow your opinions. He may be correct, but I’ll defend your right to post your opinions and your charts forever.
Oh, I see. Thank you. I wasn’t quite sure. That’s not true though. I’m really only trying to apply my scientific methodology to see if it helps in any way.
You keep rolling NS. I believe in the scientific methodology myself (as a microbiologist). Sometimes science leads us down the correct paths. Other times it leads us down a dead end. But that’s the fun, in my opinion, of the scientific method. Postulating a position which ends up being scientifically correct is an exhilarating experience. Postulating a position which ends up being incorrect just means back to the drawing board to see where we got it wrong. Either way, knowledge is gained.
So keep posting your scientific methodologies on this thread….they are food for thought.
Exactly – people don’t really have an understanding of international markets – e.g when people hear that China is buying gold they think it’s because they want to dump dollars -lol
No one is sacrificing the dollar … it’s headlines like these which irritate me with the gold community
The Dollar Doesn’t Have to nosedive. If the Dollar Nosedives the Euro will soar ! Then gold may drop in Euro etc. ALL Fiat is in QE infinity mode…The Yen The Euro…all of it
They can all stay relatively close and Gold should still rise IMHO
Gold is NOT in a Bull unless and Until it rises vs all Currencies .
It’s my view that the Dollar is slowly being sacrificed by never ending ‘modern monetary theory’. It’s a case of, ‘the debt doesn’t matter until it does’. Just take a look at the rising proportion of GDP that is required just to pay interest on the debt. If you treat the currency with contempt by turning it into confetti, it surely will be destroyed.
No pretense: You make very pretty charts that are highly biased to your personal beliefs.
Feel free to ignore me. It sounds like you probably do. I’m only trying to share my own thought processes, in the hope it may be helpful.
I do ignore you. I just thought I’d point out the obvious.
Northstar provides many charts that are fun to look at and thought provoking. He expresses his opinions, which are strongly bifurcated. He usually states that X is going to happen. He often states that it is however possible that not-X will happen, in which case not-X might happen strongly. I have my own misgivings about some of his methodology (much of which I tend to share about all the methodologies here), but I love looking at it. He also seems, as noted above, completely forthright about his subjectivities.
Although I lack data to prove the contention, I personally doubt that goldtent.com’s audience is large enough for his comments to affect the larger markets appreciably such as the gold price or the US dollar. Unlike some people, he does not seem to mention specific stocks whole liquidity is small compared to goldtent.com’s audience in such a way that his comments might be likely to affect his holdings.
I cannot object too too much to any postings by anyone here since I do not offer my own methodologies. However I do not believe I have seen anyone who has posted work that can be described as rigorous. (I suppose you could say that Northstar’s is aesthetically rigorous, but I mean one that the PhD’s of books on trading or major trading desks would respect.) Many presentations I have seen here are less rigorous than Northstar’s and could rather easily be ripped to shreds by the pros, in my opinion.
I have seen no one here take the test of being given blind sets of data from multiple unknown markets and, with fees and slippage taken into account, showing consistent good results. I have seen no one take make multiple specific recommendations in multiple markets using specificied methologies and posting account records. I do see anecdotal opinionating and pretense, not necessarily particularly original, associated with squiggly lines with store-bought software and squiggly lines, or sometimes allusion to secret methodologies. I think Northstar’s work stands out as about as good as it can be without having something like having an extreme industrial strength professional environment and support. I am not sure that the apparent hint of implied criticism of Northstar’s motives or character–but perhaps I badly misjudge–is ideal. I am a big fan of Northstar’s work, personally. No idea whether it will work though.
Thank you for you comments Karl. I’m at a bit of a loss really – all I’m trying to do is provide some helpful guidance. I thought that’s what all the posters here do. There are some posts I agree with and some I disagree with, but I wouldn’t dream of questioning someones motives after they’ve given up their own time to produce charts and guidance. As always we can have a healthy debate, or simply ignore and move on. I’ll make my position very, very clear next time I post.