Loading ...10 Years After
The weekly LOG chart for the QQQ gives some amazing perspective.
QQQ is an etf with all the Big Tech Companies as its components.
Is it Over ? Maybe BUT
Much too early to call a top !
WHAT A BULL IT IS
Almost a 10 bagger in 10 years !
That sure beat inflation …
Roughly $1000 in QQQ in 2009 became $10,000 in 2019
We all remember that 10 year bull in Gold 2001 to 2011
Roughly 350 to 1900…that was great but this QQQ Bull was better by a long shot and may still be going
The Moving averages have not even hinted its over.
If it is Topping…it will take a long time before we can see the ultimate topping pattern .
Fully Disclaimer…I’m short and happy but never complacent.
Brilliant chart!
It demonstrates the credit cycle clearly – the advance out of the GFC, the consolidation phase 2015-16, then the rapid advance toward the peak when volatility increases, before one final blow-off top then into the mid cycle correction.
The second half of the credit cycle through to 2026-27 will see exponential advance in technology and share price.
Before the big bust around 18-22 years from the start!
Thanks for this excellent info on the credit cycle. I’ve done everything wrong when it comes to equities but this helps enormously.
I’m assuming we’ve had our blow-off top and are in the mid-cycle correction, right? If not, please set me straight. Thanks.
I should have added that I’ve held on to my equities even through this painful ICL process. By my count, we’re beginning week 24 tomorrow having topped R/T on week 18–so nothing very serious to worry about. Even so, it’s been steep. I’m basically assuming that once this ICL bottoms–soon–we’re off to the races again for the second half of this credit cycle. Am I off base?
No Curly Top you are off base!
In my opinion we have NOT had a blow-off top yet, we are still in 1999 (the last cycle is a great fractal).
Certainly the next weekly cycle will be difficult in late Aug, Sep and early Oct as we print a YCL (yearly cycle low) but after that will come the blow-off top, stocks will top (maybe mid 2020) and we will enter a mid cycle slowdown similar to 2001-early 2003
The mid cycle slowdown will be the opportunity to accumulate stocks in readiness for the exponential growth to follow through to 2026-27
You better drop me a line at norvast@gmail.com and I will give you a road-map (the real estate & banking or credit cycle repeats every 18-22 years so there is a road-map).
Hey Sir Norvast,
Why not post your roadmap for the benfit of the whole Tent ??
We’ve seen many roadmaps here.
For you it might be useful to receive constructive critiscism.
Just sayin…
Peace, success, out: P
Thanks very much. Will email you now. And I appreciate your take on the timing.
Paul thanks for your comment but the “road-map” is NOT entirely my work, so in posting here I may breach copyright.
I am more than happy to comments on my interpretation of the credit cycle both here and at Surf City Cycles.
My entire financial investment life is based on the real estate & banking cycle (credit cycle).
We can argue and discuss elements re “timing” of tops and bottoms but the framework remains intact, and that is the beauty of cycle analysis (both short & long) in that it offers a “framework” for investment decisions.
I would like to add that for many years the stock-market “bears” on this site (and RC) have been proven incorrect, and the chart above demonstrates that exceptionally well.
They will again have their day in the sun but that is clearly identified in the “road-map” so we should be fully prepared.
In the meantime use the mid cycle slowdown to accumulate undervalued stock and await the gains that will flow from those wise decisions.