No deal or no Brexit  

I’ve been saying to anyone who will listen, for quite some time – in my view the UK will not leave the EU. The UK Government issued this to the people…

Following the vote to leave, the deadline was set as May 29th 2019. Still the UK hasn’t left. The deadline has been pushed back to October, but it needs to be decided long before then. The Government goes on Summer break Mid July to September. No deal has already been ruled out, so that just leaves no Brexit. That  can happen by simply revoking Article 50, but much more likely is some sort of deal is cobbled together, then it goes to the people for another vote. I think there will be enough people who have changed their minds, to make it closer to 60/40 in favour of remaining in the EU.  Brexit will be dead in the water.

The Brexit party is likely to be the single biggest party after that, with representatives in the European Parliament stirring up trouble, despite an electorate who eventually voted remain. Total mess is an understatement.

One upshot, is a stronger Euro, dropping the Dollar Index and providing a tailwind for PMs. The charts have been telling us this is likely to happen, and this might just be another fundamental reason why.