Loading ...Gold – Bullish Descending Wedge
I’ve posted this several times, and I’ve been posting the ’rounded base’ since last Summer. The latest bullish descending wedge has broken to the upside. Great news, but nothing changes until the $1360-$1400 region is broken to the upside, or $1220 region is broken to the downside. I believe the risk/reward is very heavily tilted in favour of an upside breakout.
“I believe the risk/reward is very heavily tilted in favour of an upside breakout.”
And I believe that we are probably on the verge of a mini-crash wave down.
At least at intermediate degree (for a weeks).
My dailies say “imminent”.
Weeklies give it into next week or so, to get going.
There is a LT upturn coming by mid summer.
As I’ve said repeatedly it’s irrelevant unless $1220 is broken to the downside.
Northstar, My Time & Price cycle work shows that you are potentially correct as long as Gold’s low from 8 days ago holds. If so, that low would be a longer term ICL making it a higher ICL than December 2018 which would be bullish. If correct, we should expect new highs above 1400 in this next Intermediate Cycle. Lets remember that Gold took 27 weeks to top in the last IC and spent so much time moving higher, it should not have much Time to move lower before the next ICL forms.
The break of the trend line looks like a change of trend, looking at GDX and miners like GOLD and AU however, there is a possibility for 1 more down move with GDX testing the 19.60 level and GOLD the 11.60 Level
Alex, Gold is the Cycle Driver, but you are correct that the Miners (GDX) could see an undercut low in the days ahead before bottoming. I, therefore, am setting my stops based on Gold. As long as Gold does not take out it’s 1267 from 8 days ago.
Thanks for that Surf. I think Pedro may miss-understand me. I’m not saying with 100% certainty that gold is going to go directly from here to $1400+. I don’t really look at the smaller time frame cycle analysis because I only invest on the timescale of months to years. Gold may well move lower before moving higher, but the point I’m making is that the ‘bigger picture’ move is very likely to be up. In other words I would be around 90% confident that the $1220 area will hold as support, and the $1360-$1400 region will (eventually) be broken to the upside.
I agree with your longer term view but in the near term, 1267 from 8 days ago needs to hold for the move to 1400 and beyond to start in this Intermediate Cycle.
Seems very very likely too me. As you say, topping on wk. 27 and then bottoming on what looks like week 37 after a torturous ride leads me to think we won’t be going down from here and that holding 1267.30 from May 2 is the much more likely outcome. So I’m with NS on his prediction for this IC, and am invested as such.
That being said, unlike many, I don’t believe that gold prices always trade freely enough to use cycles as profitably as one might. To be blunt, I believe efforts are made to manage the upside as they are with regard to other currencies. So if I see the DC fail here, that’s what I’ll think. That’s why I’d do if I were King and issued my own non-backed currency, paper or digital or otherwise.
I don’t think pedro misunderstands you at all.
Your first chart shows just a few recent months, with the word “breakout” as a completed event.
Then your text is “I believe the risk/reward is very heavily tilted in favour of an upside breakout.”
And my reply focused on that line.
So that’s shorter term analysis, involving a supposedly completed event, and I’m arguing that it likely fails.
No big deal to me. I’m watching this sector pretty closely because I do see hints of a turn at higher degrees. But then I turn to the daily and see something quite different.
IMO, PMs are rising on rate cut hopes, that turn on an SPX nosedive. It could happen here, if not now, withing a few weeks.
Fair enough. I should be clearer.
Hey Pedro…interesting comments. Given your background and the fact that your insights are probably correct, I wonder if of you would be kind enough to give us an idea what technicals and/or fundamentals you are relying on for your prediction of a crash in the PMs. Of course, if you work is proprietary I will understand your reluctance to share that work. Nevertheless, I for one would like to see the evidence you rely on just to satisfy my curiosity. Thanks in advance!