Loading ...MTAFF – Metalla Royalty and Streaming
Here’s a multiyear bullish view using monthly candles of MTAFF, an emerging precious metals royalty company, which was in a 2 year channel when benchmarked against the Nasdaq 100. The MTAFF:$NDX ratio broke out of this 2 year channel in January 2019 and may have backtested the breakout in April and May. As long as this backtest holds, MTAFF stock is positioned to outperform the Nasdaq 100 index.
On MTAFF’s nominal price chart, we see a breakout from a 2 year ascending triangle in January 2019 (same month as the channel breakout in the ratio chart). Price objective of 1.00 from the breakout was met, and we see a possible trading range emerge with resistance level of 1.00 and support levels at 0.80 and 0.75. I am currently holding MTAFF stock and will likely use a weekly or monthly close below the top rail of the 2 year MTAFF:$NDX channel as my stop. Good luck MTAFF longs! -Harry
“multiyear bullish view”
So … how many zeroes is that AFTER the decimal, and before the 1 ?
And since that’s almost certainly rounded up …
What’s the real price taken to two or more significant digits?
Never mind … see now this is relative to NDX.
I guess its all relative.
“Here’s a multiyear bullish view”
A random ratio of numbers with no connections to the market should not be use as forecasting tool. In the market place money managers are not using hedge between MTA vs NDX as trades. One can not us corn price to any other like sugar to forecast sugar price???
But one can use soybeans to soybean oil ratio may be a valid one.
OR
Junk bonds etf vs TLT where money managers have arbitrage trades.
Agree
Ratio charts are best for comparing indices not junior miners IMHO
Thanks for the feedback guys! Yes, I understand this $NDX ratio strategy is not a traditional TA method, but I have seen success with it and can furnish examples of how it can be a useful indicator.
RE: junior miners: The NDX ratio strategy proved useful when looking at Trilogy Metals (TMQ) which is a junior copper miner. I shared this post in December, updated in April. The TMQ:$NDX ratio continued to ride the 2 year upwards sloping support line over the past five months, gaining nearly 50%.
https://goldtadise.com/?p=443259
I’ve also used this successfully with a variety of stocks in different sectors, small and large cap. I’ve documented my 10 best NDX ratio buys of 2018 in this post on my blog.
https://www.triplehstocks.com/2019/03/18/my-top-ten-stock-buys-of-2018/
Looking at MTAFF, the channel on the MTAFF:$NDX ratio looks similar to the channel that was built out for WWE:$NDX in early 2018. I bought WWE stock when the ratio broke above the channel and held it for 14 months to a 180% gain. Not saying this will 100% happen for Metalla, but the possibility to hold for big gains is there until the NDX ratio breaks down and I stop out.
https://www.triplehstocks.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/WWENDX.png
The NDX ratio comparison is mostly used as a market momentum indicator for trend-following position trading, benchmarking security XYZ against the highest momentum broad index we currently know, the Nasdaq 100. My strategy is to buy stocks and ETFs that have broken out against the Nasdaq 100 and hold them until they breakdown on the same ratio.
There are many ways to trade the markets and I’m happy to see a variety of strategies presented on Goldtent. I first became aware of using ratios like this from browsing Goldtent and it fit my technical experience better so I developed it further. This strategy is not infallible! However, it has been useful for me as an objective way to cut losing trades short with minimal loss and continue holding winning trades for maximal gain. Thank you!
In 2000 Dot.com there were many who became expert overnite.
Lesson: “It is market stupid”
Just because in a bull market some thing works does not mean it is a reliable indicator/s. IMHOP
Thanks for the comment Bikoo!
Yes, this NDX ratio strategy also works in sideways or bear markets. At least it worked in the mini bear market in Q4 2018. I wrote a post in November showing the ‘Defensive Sector Rotation’ in that Utilities, Real Estate and Consumer Staples ETFs broke out against the Nasdaq 100 in October ’18. Following these charts, I was able to rotate a significant amount of my portfolio into these defensive sectors, thereby avoiding the full extent of the December ’18 drawdown when NDX crashed 20%+
https://www.triplehstocks.com/2018/11/23/defensive-sector-rotation-q4-2018/
I went into 2019 with lots of low volatility, utilities, REITs, bonds exposure. However, I’ve recently been offloading the defensive sectors and rotating back into offensive sectors like semiconductors now that those defensive sectors are breaking down on NDX ratios!
The real test will be the next major ‘tech wreck’. However, I think that if Gold does its job, then $GOLD:$NDX will show a breakout at the appropriate time, allowing us to rotate our portfolios into Gold and avoid the full extent of the wreck! If not Gold, then maybe Bonds or the USD. All three can be plotted against the NDX and used to rotate portfolio exposure!
Interesting analysis Triplehstocks! Go with what works best for you – add what you can learn from others – sift – repeat. You’ve identified market opportunities from your chart work that others may not be seeing, much like Rambus did years ago and nobody wanted to listen. From long term analysis your strategy moves you from momentum to defensive positions as the markets change. What more could an investor ask for! Keep up the good work and keep us posted as your analysis continues. Will check out your website as well.
PKP