Rambus Weekend Report
In this Weekend Report I’m going to follow up from the Late Friday Night Charts, with some long term charts for gold and the HUI that were made literally years ago. These long term charts are important because they were made when the psychology of the PM complex was very different from what it is today, or is it? We know 100% for sure that the PM complex topped out in 2011 with silver putting in its bull market high in April with gold and the HUI putting in their final bull market high in September. It doesn’t seem possible but that was eight years ago already. Let that sink in for a minute.
During this eight year bear market there has only been one bright spot which was the eight month rally from January 2016 low to August of 2016 high. The rest of the time the PM complex has been trading sideways to down making very little progress to the upside. This type of slow steady grind to the downside eats away at investors emotions to the point where they will believe anything to end their frustration that began at the bear market top. It’s been eight long years and a bottom should be close at hand because that is long enough for a bear market they believe.
The markets don’t care what I believe or anyone else for that matter. It’s our belief system that gets us into trouble. How can the US stock markets keep going up when there are so many reasons it can’t keep going up, but the stock markets don’t care about what we believe. How can the PM complex keep going down in the face of all the negative reasons the world is coming to an end any day now. The markets makes absolutely no sense to most investors. This has to be, in order to have markets to trade.
Once everyone finally gets on the same page, at the end of a bull market or the beginning of a bear market, the markets will do their best to confound the masses. I say that like the markets are a living and breathing entity which in fact they are. The markets are made up of millions of investors each with their own agenda on how to make a killing. It’s the herd mentality that most of us think we are immune to but in reality we are all part of the herd whether we like it or not. Thinking outside the box is very difficult to do but it is mandatory if we are going to have any chance to be successful at playing one of the most difficult games on the planet to win.
This first chart tonight is a 20 year weekly look at gold which shows its extraordinary bull market that began in 2001 and ended ten years later in 2011. During the bull market years I called this chart, “just another brick in the wall.” I often said during the bull market that investors will be studying this bull many years in the future just like we study the stock market crash in 1929. That ten year bull market in gold was a thing of beauty with one consolidation pattern forming on top of the previous one. There were big consolidation patterns along with very small ones as shown by the green triangles that formed in the middle of almost every impulse move higher. There were also many measured moves that worked out very well.
If Rambus Chartology had been up and going during the bull market years you would have known that I was one of the biggest promoters of that bull market based on the Chartology. Outside of the 2008 correction the ten year bull market made a series of higher highs and higher lows, one consolidation pattern forming on top of the previous one, which by definition a true bull market.
That beautiful bull market came to an abrupt end in September of 2011 after putting in a spike high. From that spike high gold had its first initial decline in its new bear market falling almost 400 points before finding support. From that first reversal point, in what turned out to be a six point rectangle consolation pattern, gold chopped sideways in a tight trading range and finally broke the bottom rail signaling the new bear market was alive and well. The breakout below the bottom rail of the blue rectangle coincided with the 2013 crash which caught most investors off guard. There were cries of manipulation, how could it be anything else. The Chartology was looking for a breakout below the bottom rail as the rectangle was forming below the 2011 high, which was strongly suggesting a new bear market was being born. As you can see there was a backtest to the bottom rail which confirmed the rectangle was a consolation pattern and ushered in the new bear market in no uncertain terms.
Next I would like to show you a variation of the same trading zone with this first chart showing you the possible bullish setup. We’ve been following this potential multi year H&S consolidation pattern for a long time now but the price action refuses to breakout above the neckline. It would be a very bullish situation if gold finally breaks out of this multi year trading range.
Complete Comprehensive Chartology of Gold and Gold Stocks …for members
https://rambus1.com/2019/05/05/weekend-report-180/
There is a most incredible chart at the end of this report….without giving away the particulars it has something to do with 38.9% !
wow Rambus !
Nice reading and it shows again that any rally we will have the next years to maybe 1500$+, will not be enough to break long term resistance so gold will remain in bear market.