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Thanks for the chart RTV….I see where you are seeing that very slanted H and S Top
I took your chart and added a single line.
Changes everything .
Tough thing to do sometimes…..view a chart objectively ….because we all have a bias at every point in time.
Some people are always bullish, some always bearish and some like me are often Skittish.
lol! who is “observing” and who is “projecting”?
is that EWP you are applying for your “projection”? if so – i have issue with your wave count. wave 1 is placed incorrectly, because the starting point for any wave 1 (74.17) cannot be violated to the downside by any part of wave 1, which happens in April 2011 (72.70). if you want to start there, then the top of the Head (103.82) could certainly suffice as a wave 5.
the next issue would be if its wave 5 of 1, wave 5 of 3, or wave 5 of 5…which will impact whether a wave 2 or wave 4 correction is next. wave 4 would entail an a-b-c type correction, while a wave 2 can return all the way back to the starting point of wave 1 – again, as long as it doesn’t violate the start of wave 1 (72.70). 🙂
oops – sorry, meant to say:
“wave 1 is placed incorrectly, because the starting point for any wave 1 (74.17) cannot be violated to the downside by any part of wave 2…”
Believe the numbers are for reversals in the channel – and not EW.
oh…chartology?
nope. in that case the return to the lower channel at the beginning of 2018, at 88.15, would be pt. 4, instead of the “projected” pt. 4 sometime in 2020…
Actually Point 4 is a fractal of point 2 on this chart. Yes the 2018 low hit the bottom line but it can hit again ( as it did after the 2011 low and THAT would be the potential point 4
PS…always assume Chartology when I am posting…i know very little EW
fully! there you are… 🙂
lol! still luv ya – and i appreciate you noticing my chart – but i beg to differ with your comments. my chart is “objective”, observation – and not tough to do at all. yours is projection – ok, with fractals – which is not objective – and changes nothing. btw – i also disagree with your chartology. IF your fractal doesn’t play out as you project – then 88.15 is pt. 4, no? which means it is either way – just as the first hit at the bottom rail in 2011 is pt. 2, not the second hit.
The way I see it and my point is…we are both observing but what we are observing is offering a completely different outcome.
Because of our bias .
I see a perfect channel….and until it breaks down it is going UUP.
You see a H and S top but it is also just potential…it has not broken down and until it does we Do have the channel to guide us
as far as the numbers
2 could be as you say the first hit \BUT the real reversal point started at the second hit….there is also a good cycle in there if you look
🙂