More economic insights…From my friend Carl
This is what happened leading up to the market break down in 2008. Large investors who were told they could protect their downside risk with asset allocation programs ended up owning the same investment profile. They may have 20 different asset allocations with small exposure in each one. The theory is pretty simple actually, if one asset declines the others may not or will not. In a panic asset allocation is the straw that breaks the investment back as sellers start selling all of the assets seeking cash. The problem that emerges is that as fear takes over there are less and less funds committed to the buy side. When trouble emerges that is systemic there are few buyers.
This is not 2008 with an attack on the banking system that could have destroyed the U.S. financial system. Without the actions of the Federal Reserve and the success of TARP we could still be trying to manage a depression. Now the problem that maybe faced is that is low interest rates helped banks regain their liquidity but at what cost? Now all three main types of borrowers including individuals, corporations and governments are loaded down with records amount of debt. That is a natural outcome of low interest rates. People and orgs borrow money because the low cost makes it psychologically acceptable. This can cause two drip, drip, drip water torture events. One is that defaults similar to what is happening with auto loans now slowly start increasing. At first the markets will ignore this problem, but if it spreads to credit card debt and if home sales continue to decline it could mean consumers will be the first to experience financial stress. They will soon be asking “why did I buy that car, house or boat?” Why did I borrow money for a college education at an expensive school when I could have went to one at half the cost? Eventually corporations that are borrowing large amounts of money at high yields because their prospects really are not good will come under fire and bankruptcies will start emerging. Eventually investors will wonder about the role of inflation as the value of currencies are questioned as governments are forced to borrow more and more money to pay their rapidly increasing interest costs. The canary in the economic in this scenario I believe remains the price of oil. If it climbs faster and higher than most believe possible inflation could be come a huge problem speeding up the decline of the world economies. The second drip, drip event is the markets drop slowly and investments still have the illusion of hope. Hope is poison in the decision making process when it has to do with stock ownership.
Carl
I love it. Very depressing. Thanks for the gloom and doom. It does my heart good.
As Spock said in one of his lasts posts, it isn’t going to be pretty.
“Hope is poison!” Like it! There’s nothing like a little doom and gloom for a sunny Tuesday morning! 🙂
What I was going to write was that I agree with the comments about oil prices. Practically the only driver in inflation between 2014 and 2018 was the price of oil. CPI went from 1.7 to -0.2 then to 3 then back under 2 on the whole oil price thing.
1.7% CPI during this time represented “no change of oil prices”. I did a lot of charts of this at the time but gave up because I got bored and it wasn’t making me any money. I ran a few inflation models. The correlation of headline CPI with the CPI energy sector was very high (0.98 if I recall), with year over year gasoline price changes it was about 0.9 and with WTIC oil prices year on year it was about 0.84. Maybe these were “r squared” correlations, I can’t recall but anyway of course gasoline itself being retail is in the CPI but WTIC oil being wholesale is not.
Bottom line, oil up, inflation up.
HOwever, the double of oil in 2016-17 sent CPI to about +3%
The halving of oil (twice) in 2014-15 and 2015-16 sent CPI to -0.2%
Bigger fluctuation s than this are unlikely unless oil keeps climbing and climbing and soaks through systemically into all retail prices and wholesale costs.
I should re-run my models bvecause a departure from them could indicate that systemic inflation or deflation is at hand.
There was no systemic deflation in 2015 even though CPI went below 0. It was all in the oil and gasoline prices.
I’ve just taken a look at inflation for Feb 2018. It’s still all one big yawn:
“The all items index increased 1.5 percent for the 12 months ending February,
a smaller increase than the 1.6-percent rise for the 12-months ending January.
The index for all items less food and energy rose 2.1 percent over the last
12 months, a slightly smaller figure than the 2.2-percent increase for the
period ending January. The food index rose 2.0 percent over the past year, its
largest 12-month increase since the period ending April 2015. In contrast, the
energy index declined 5.0 percent over the last 12 months. ”
CPI 1.5% energy -5.0% everything else up about 2%. This would have been in line with my old models from 2014-2017. CPI 1.7 is with energy neutral. Core inflation is about 2%, most items inflation is about 2% (except energy). *YAWN*
It might be fascinating to see what happens if oil takes off while credit is contracting, if that is possible.
What I meant by oil prices “soaking through” to all other items is bascially because it didn’t do this in 2014-2017.
During that time, the CPI went up and down with the energy sector, period. Inflaiton in everything else hardly changed, even when oil halved or doubled. Virtually the entire CPI was driven only on the actual consumer price of energy as expressed in the Energy sector CPI subsection. That’s why I wrote no soak through to other sectors. In other words, food for instance went up 1.5% year on year whatever oil and energy did, more or less. Services went up 2% or 2.2% or whatever, the same, regardless of oil price changes.
I don’t think this is what happened in 2006-2008 for instance, as CPI went to 5% or whatever. the wole lot started to run away to the upside and then BANG! Oil from $147 to $35 and CPI deflation.
Anyway, the whole CPI thing in all the western world is a joke, hedonic adjustments, geometric weightings; basically they have nailed the CPI figures to 2 +/- 1% forever, whatever real inflation is.
Thanks for this. Near zero interest rates has just moved the problem from one place to another (and multiplied it). It doesn’t matter, until it does.