As some here remember, I have Elliott wave software that I run from time to time on the markets.  No system is perfect, but I like Elliott Waves and have done well with them over the years.

First, a basic tenet of EW is that you are either in an impulse move, or a correction.  I think few would argue that gold was in an impulse move from 2002-2011.  After an impulse wave, a corrective wave follows – which is where we are now.  Corrective waves are usually 3 distinct waves.  There are others, but they don’t apply to the following charts.  In our case that means a leg down, a leg up, and another leg down. Here is a sample corrective wave.

Now on to the EW charts –

Notice the brown line labeled (dz) that runs from 2011 to the end of 2016?  That would equate to the first leg down.

 

In this second chart, notice the brown line labeled (fl) that runs from the end of 2016 until February of this year?  That would equate to the leg up.  The software says we are now just starting our next wave down.

I know, everyone looks at the charts and says that makes no sense, right?  Well, the next chart shows how that scenario fits very well within a larger time frame.  NOTE – I did not draw this chart, in fact, I really wish that I knew who did.  It was someone here at Goldtent, or possibly the Rambus Chartology Forum (if anyone knows, please give them credit in the comments).  In any case, it demonstrates the point the software is making.

Sorry I don’t have great news and a rosy outlook, but as Morpheus said in the Matrix, “Remember, all I am offering is the truth.  Nothing more.”  Well, time will tell if it’s the truth, but it looks plausible.