Goldtent TA Paradise

Gold Seasonal Chart

1. Karl says:

   March 2, 2019 - 12:36 pm at 12:36 pm

   A rule of thumb:

   The PM markets go down, typically somewhat unpleasantly, during or just before PDAC (maybe some years right as people are on their way home???). I haven’t studied it formally, but I’ve noticed it now for decades. I don’t trade short-term, so I haven’t traded it, and I don’t think it can be relied on mindlessly. In 2016, as I recall, there might or might not have been some little dip around PDAC time, but one probably would have had to be awfully nimble to make money shorting that year. Nevertheless PDAC is a nice memory-jog for this part of the seasonality.

   • Fullgoldcrown says:

     March 2, 2019 - 1:24 pm at 1:24 pm

     PDAC is quite a big deal in the Mining Community and I agree there always seems to be a hit around this time..

     The biggest was back in the mid 90s. PDAC was at the Royal York Hotel in Toronto.

     I was there. All the Buzz was BreX .

     Deguzman the head geologist was there accepting an award for Prospector of the year or something.

     A Few days later he “Jumped” out of a helicopter in Borneo and the Gold Miner market went down with him and has NEVER recovered since !

     • Karl says:

       March 2, 2019 - 2:51 pm at 2:51 pm

       Mr Hamilton’s chart comes with “2001-2012, 2016-2018”. I wonder what 2014-2015 would show. Were they left out because they supported the annotations on his chart too too well, in other words did he exclude them out of personal modesty because he would have been embarrassed at just how way too super-good his chart would have looked? Perhaps he had accompanying text that explain the choice of data.

       We all know how cherry-picking, conscious or not, can affect conclusions. Gold has long term underperformed versus the S&P since year WXYZ! Or outperformed since year ABCD. etc.

       “Indexed Annually then Averaged”. I can understand “averaged” though perhaps what kind of average (mean, geometric average…) might be specified. But–as anyone familiar with my comments knows I can make some stupid ones–I don’t get what it means for gold to be “indexed”. Gold “Indexed Annually”=? Attractive chart, attractive words. Presumably Mr Hamilton explains all in accompanying text.

       • Fullgoldcrown says:

         March 2, 2019 - 11:40 pm at 11:40 pm

         Very keen Eye Karl

         He left out all the most bearish years.

         Yikes. Cherry Picking indeed.

         You are a lawyer right ?

         🙂

2. Avocado Pit says:

   March 3, 2019 - 9:51 am at 9:51 am

   I notice Adam did not include bear market years in his chart. He seems to think gold only goes up. Tell that to anyone who bought and held in 1980, they still have yet to get their money back. 21 year bear market, which is why I’m not a bull this time around.

   • Karl says:

     March 3, 2019 - 2:43 pm at 2:43 pm

     It really depends a lot on what data one chooses to include, such as the starting point, doesn’t it? If you start in 1980, it’s horrible. (I actually remember people putting all they could into Au at the top then, even borrowing to do it, though I had neither cash nor time to invest in anything myself.) If your starting point is a bit before or after 1980 it can look not so bad at all.

     Bizarrely enough one of my kids, in his early 20s, half said half asked, “Gold always goes up, doesn’t it?” He certainly did not get that from me. He had just been hanging out with a pal w/ a parent originally from India–maybe that comment represented dogma that in that household. I had to show him some long-term charts to indicate that, yes, I think it does, but sometimes you have to wait decades and maybe not be so happy while waiting.

     I personally have not done so badly for 21 years, mainly out of luck, certainly not primarily competence. You happen to buy some little stocks that go to the moon and take at least partial profits and it can work, so it does not feel like a bear market to me at all, though it has not been easy, and I may change my outlook as Au sails past $950/oz down to $800 or below.

3. Afasilver says:

   March 3, 2019 - 2:26 pm at 2:26 pm

   I don’t think Adam’s approach to averages are in left field if one is to believe we are in a bull market. If we are not, then including bear market years would help. At minimum, he should show both and let the reader consider what risks to take.

4. Tbone says:

   March 3, 2019 - 3:29 pm at 3:29 pm

   Hamilton does his best work with crayons in the dark and wishful guesses. I cant take any of the gold “establishment” seriously.

   • Karl says:

     March 3, 2019 - 3:59 pm at 3:59 pm

     Yes. Having made myself all too familiar with this stuff year after year for decades, I have learned that much of the stuff from supposed experts is garbage. Even the most astute, honest, and careful get it wrong remarkably often. Above all, I have learned to take my own opinions less and less seriously. I was somewhat tutored by some genuinely knowledgeable people and tried on my own to get smarter still, but I cannot believe how stupid I was and how little I know, and how easily I can get so much wrong, now at least as much as ever. I feel so stupid now!

     In other words are experts from whom one can learn. Much of the stuff is just garbage. Much of my own internal stuff is garbage. Nevertheless one can do ok, even if stupid, if one is super-cynical about the experts and especially any hype, tries to buy some sound stuff a bit too early or preferably as it’s starting to rise and tries to have some discipline in taking some profits. TA helps, but in my hands (and I’m not sure I’m any worse than the experts) it was far from 100% reliable. (The TA experts who will actually stick their necks out and take a stand yet will use cautioning words like “probably” or “if I’m correct” freely seem to be the ones who maybe can be more seriously taken than others.)

     Sometimes the experts have useful things to say. Often it is good to look at their stuff while mentally attacking it. Also useful to study propaganda for hyped up companies, or hyped up market methodologies, not necessarily to buy but in order to get as jaded as possible and feel as stupid as possible as you feel yourself getting drawn in. IMO.

     But you certainly are right in suggesting great caution with most who present themselves as experts.

     • Karl says:

       March 3, 2019 - 4:02 pm at 4:02 pm

       typo: “In other words are experts” -> “In other words there are experts”

5. Tbone says:

   March 3, 2019 - 5:18 pm at 5:18 pm

   I agree Karl. Opinion-wise, I think the gold related traders in and around fully’s sites are pretty good. If my TA is off from what everyone else is saying I’ll go back and review why I think I’m right ( or wrong ).