Loading ...If You’re Wondering How Long The Rally Might Last
I took a look back at the big 2016 rally. Bear in mind that that was not a breakout move, just part of the bottoming process. As such, the current move could be stronger and longer (unless the whole thing collapses in a pile of dust – pun intended, lol).
This is 2016 and now side by side. Compare and contrast.
We may just burst through the $1350-$1400 zone. It really wouldn’t surprise me at all. Alternatively, we may consolidate around or just above the current level for a while, with a modest pullback possible. With breakouts already achieved in so many major global currencies (including the hugely important Chinese Yuan and Indian Rupee), upward pressure must surely be huge.
At what level you see the GDX or HUI break out confirmed? GDX 23.50-24+ looks like it will do it.
I think GDX 24, but as I’ve pointed out before Michael Oliver states GDX already broke out weeks/months ago per momentum TA analysis. GDX will catch fire after 24 breakout (actually after gold surpasses $1365, so one will want to be in before then because then comes 25 and then 30 probably pretty rapidly. Then maybe a consolidation for a while?
Just looking at weekly RSI near 70 shows momentum has broken out, compared with lower readings of the last 2 years. I guess this is the same conclusion as Michael Oliver work.
Per his work GDXJ is close to breaking out against GDX … probably happens when gold surpasses $1365 as he considers that the magic key to more money moving into the sector. A large asset shift is occurring right in front of our eyes. He already shows gold and silver breaking out, to include against the S&P 500. All the ducks are lining up for this to be the best sector over the next few years.
Both HUI and GDX have already broken out – see my new post.
Looking at price resistance, it depends if you just you at horizontal GDX resistance from last 2 years near 24 level or look at descending trend line from Mid 2016 Top.
I think we drive towards $1400, then backtest $1365-$1375-ish for a while? However, remember that’s what we are expecting, but bulls can take on a form of their own … it’s possible it drives through $1400 also? I would hate to be on the sidelines if I was a die hard bull right now.
this rally lasts til 2021
James, I tend to agree. A large mid cycle correction before the final push to the cycle top in the mid 2020’s.