Ask yourself: How many people make big money in the markets? I am not talking about Wall Street titans, the type of people Jack Schwager interviews for his book series, Market Wizards. No, I am talking about average run of the mill smucks like you and I. People who work hard in the trenches trying to pay the bills and support a family. People who need to pull in their belts just to save some money trying to improve their lives. How many of these people score big in the market? I am not talking about small potato bragging rights to boast about around the water cooler in front of your friends, I am talking about serious money. I am not even talking about the 1,000 shares of Apple you bought at the bottom in 2009 for $10/share and sold it later on and bought a Cadillac Escalade and an around the world luxury cruise for your 25th anniversary in which you paid cash for both. No, I am talking about big money… life changing money. How many people reach this level? Profoundly few, that’s how many.

Few ever achieve this because they don’t operate within a framework. They don’t see the possibilities that lie in front of them so they don’t have the conviction to take the major position and stick with it. Instead, they invest with the crowd, they seek validation and eventually get shaken out when the market turns against them. Furthermore, they buy what is already overvalued towards the end of a cycle. Ultimately, if they make any money at all it’s really just chump change.”

For Rambus Members ( some well researched , interesting long term hold picks here)

https://rambus1.com/2019/02/10/weekend-report-be-right-sit-tight/

“Now let me ask you this: in the great bull market from 1982-2000 when the S&P 500 went up 16X and the NASDAQ 33X how many investors captured the majority of those moves in that 18 year period? How many were able to establish major positions within a year of the bottom and stay in the investment until a year from either side of the top? That would have required holding on during the initial 20% drawdown in 1984 which lasted 10 months, then not have been shaken out in the crash of 1987. Later, one would have had to sit tight through the 20% bear market leading into the first Gulf war. Scary events of the 1990’s were the Orange County crisis of 1994, the Mexican crisis in 1995 and the LTCM shakeout in 1998. It would require one to recognize a phase III mania and exit to cash within one year of the top. How many people do you think were able to ride the bull and ultimately to grab the brass ring? I don’t know, but I bet they could only be numbered in the hundreds.

But here is the thing, I think it’s achievable”

“A young man is not likely to be a great investor. Unless he has had an extraordinary amount of mentorship from an early age, he must undergo many false starts and accidents before he has the seasoning to be successful over the long haul. Sure he can strike it rich in Bitcoin, but he will not be able to discern he is in a mania and will likely give most of it back and find himself back at square one having learned a valuable lesson, but at an expensive price. But after having seen many cycles play out, one begins to have a chance at recognizing a market cycle unfolding in front of him. That is where I believe we sit today. We sit at the foothills of a massive shift in the monetary order. If one can align oneself with an asset class which will benefit from the changes which are coming and hold on, you can be one of those rare few who can capture life changing returns.”

Plunger Feb 10 2019

Editor’s Note : Plunger is Rambus Chartology’s Resident market Historian. He has read every important book on market history and some of them multiple times . He quotes Jesse Livermore .

“After spending many years in Wall Street and after making and losing millions of dollars I want to tell you this: it never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It was always my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight! It is no trick at all to be right on the market. I’ve known many traders who were right at exactly the right time, and began buying or selling stocks when prices were at the very level that should show the greatest profit. And their experience invariably matched mine. That is, they made no real money out of it. Traders who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon. I found it one of the hardest things to learn. But it is only after a stock operator has firmly grasped this that he can make the big money.”

SIT !