Some Optimistic Precious Metals Charts from Rambus
Below is a weekly chart for the GDX we’ve been following for a long time watching the two and a half year falling wedge completing about 8 weeks ago when we finally got the breakout. The backtest to the top rail took about seven weeks to complete with this weeks price action possibly beginning the impulse move higher. To be honest I still can’t rule out another backtest to the top rail and the 30 week ema, but at this point it appears the breaking out and backtesting process looks to be complete.
The only reason I can’t rule out a possible second backtest is because of the top rail of the 2011 bear market downtrend channel that was broken this week and could be backtested.
The GDXJ weekly breakout and backtest.
The daily line chart for GLD shows we could get a backtest to the neckline around the 122.25 area which would be perfectly normal and actually healthy for the longevity of this move.
Last week I showed you a long term quarterly line chart for gold which is showing a possible very large H&S bottom that actually started building out during the 2013 crash. It’s another way to cut out the noise and look for big patterns. When you do spot a big pattern on a quarterly line chart you can then look at a monthly chart for more clarity and then fine tune it by looking at a weekly chart
Have a great Super Bowl Sunday. All the best…Rambus
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Editors Note:
Chart #2 which Rambus members have been following for a long time , and which you will not see anywhere else on the planet shows a very important breakout !
Nice charts. It looks like the end of consolidation and break out. Similar like end of 2009 consolidation. I Believe $1700 could be in the cards next 12/18 months.
You’d have to be a perma-bear if you can’t see this crucial breakout and what it’s telling us. $1400-$1450 is the final nail in the bears coffin.
Thanks for sharing! That GDX weekly breakout looks like an opportunity worth chasing next week…
Long term Gold quarterly chart… I like how the MACD has been solidly above 0 for the entire bear market. Also inverse head and shoulders on the RSI, with the neckline solidly above 50.
Quarterly close will be extremely important. $1330 resistance there. Worst case for bulls would be $1350-$1360 in Feb followed by reversal in March back down to $1300 or lower. Meanwhile, even if we see $1360 in Feb and weakness in March- a close above $1330 in March would still be super bullish.
Quick question on the GDX chart where the inverse head-and-shoulders appears. When doing the price objective, where do you measure the height of the H&S from? Is it from the tip of the head, then straight up to the downtrend line, then apply that height to the BO point, I would assume? Thanks for any guidance on that.
Tip of the Head to the neckline is 4 points add 4 points to that neckline and you get about 25
On which of the gdx charts are you seeing a shs pattern? I don’t see it?
Thank you and continue to be an animal!
Question for Rambus and yourself Fully (and anybody else for that matter) with regards to to GDX. The GDX broke through the channel without the help of ABX. Not sure of the exact weighting in the GDX but probably around 10%? Seems to be some miners carrying most of the load here. What are people’s thoughts on the GDX 6 best movers? And where do people see ABX fitting in? Can there be a PM rally without ABX?
I don’t know about ABX…but there are a lot of PM Stocks breaking to new highs. That’s what got me interested
There will always be leaders and lagers
ABX is the biggest Gold Miner though so it bears watching too.
Just had a look at GOLD ( No more ABX) …Pretty good looking chart …if it breaks out GDX et all will soar
http://schrts.co/jIfCnJcB
I really like how GDX and GDXJ broke out of their 2 1/2 year triangle consolidation and then did a lot of work solidifying their position before breaking higher (charts 1 & 3)
Chart 5 (quarterly Gold) shows the huge 5 year inverse SHS base. A breakout here could have a reverse symmetry impulse move back to near the old 2011 / 2012 highs.