Loading ...Fully’s Fearless Freediction
Gold and Silver are gonna do NOTHING EXCITING for a LONG time.
I hate to say this …because….
99% that come here to Goldtent TA Paradise are Goldbugs or at Least Gold Believers
The other 1% just come for the show 🙂
So this Freediction is NOT good for eyeballs unfortunately.
Anyhow this sums it up.
Long Term Silver…can anyone persuade me that this is not possible …or even …Likely !
Lets face it we are 4 years past THE bottom of the huge post bubble silver contraction and still NO traction in sight.
Even the short term (using FR.TO a good proxy for Silver Prices ) is right in the middle of a well defined downtrend that could go on forever it seems
sheesh
Someone tell Jim not to read this…he may get too depressed
But, but, but… what about the cup and handle pattern that could take silver to $700 ?
Right. Not going to happen. Most likely not soon anyway.
Otherwise intelligent talking heads have been proclaiming that USA is on the verge of hyperinflation for what – 6 years now? Longer ?
The thing is, in order for a hyperinflation to happen there first has to be a DEFLATION first, to which the PTB panic and respond with helicopter money for all. Let’s do a quick review of some facts:
USA debt to GDP today is the same as 1920 Germany…and
1920 Germany velocity of money 1.5 (USA velocity of money 1.6)
1923 Germany velocity of money 12.0 (and we all know about the 1923 Wiemar republic hyperinflation, don’t we?)
Inflation is an increase of money and credit.
Hyperinflation is a monthly increase in CPI of 50% or more.
One million dollars is a stack of $1,000 dollar bills 4 inches high.
One trillion dollars is a stack of $1,000 dollar bills 67.9 miles high
USA federal debt is $22 trillion – a stack of $1,000 dollar bills about 1,500 miles high!
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
This is not counting city and local government debt, and not counting corporate or consumer debt.
And not counting unfunded federal liabilities of $250 trillion. Ouch!
In 1903 US government spending 3% of GDP
Today w/ state, city, and local government spending is 44% of GDP
When they get to the stage where currency is printed to pay the interest on the debt people will flee the dollar.
This video warning of US hyperinflation is, I think, 6 years old. The big inflation didn’t happen. Not yet, anyway.
I don’t blame anyone for calling “nonsense, not going to happen.” Fair enough. But maybe watch the video anyway, when you can. Just because…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vZO5kcQVK68
got phys ?
I agree with you that deflation comes first.
Maybe we already had the deflation but it was smaller and more easily contained by the central planners? And that’s why precious metals are stuck in a sideways trend now?
Mainstream media was reporting deflation in October 2015, a few months before the precious metals rally of 2016
https://www.cnbc.com/2015/10/13/the-us-is-closer-to-deflation-than-you-think.html
Today ALL the countries of the world are using a fiat currency system.
The result is that we now have the highest level of debt (government, corporate, and personal) and debt obligations (pensions, medicare, medicaid) in the history of the world.
The largest in-debtor countries are the developed nations, including America with reserve currency status.
History of fiat currencies is that they all eventually fail, no exception – zero value !
Once (When? If?) the debt bubble is pricked, the result will be deflation on a massive scale.
How governments respond to the deflation will determine what happens next.
Hyperinflation? Social unrest? Bank closures? Debt jubilee? A reset? A new currency system?
Can the present system last for another 20 years ? No one knows for sure. Maybe it can, or maybe not.
But if it fails tomorrow, you should be ready. You can’t help others if you can’t help yourself.
got phys ?
Indeed, would rather “have it and not need it, than need it and not have it”
I do have one monster box of silver rounds that I acquired in late 2015. Hasn’t done much since then and I mostly forgotten about it. Likely just keep sitting on it while I play in the fiat casino with my federal reserve notes!
I think we have come out of deflation as the interest rates fell so low they couldn’t find confidence/will in the need to borrow. Economy stunk whilst Obama did nothing but golf. Now Trump repatriated cash back, lowered tax rates/stimulating and rates turn up as risk/expansion flipping up = inflation. Add in the mix that USA is the core and Euro sucks, the money will flow back into the country like a raging river to increase inflation. Armstrong figures this year is the start for gold and dow that will be like 1976-1980. Was thinking last nite a safety play might be to stash a bunch of silver down in sunny Mexico. Their country accepts its’ trade easily, the buying power will be so much better whence it tops and a market/world crash would be severely less impacted on life down there as the people have no debt and why not go sit on the sunny beach and relax whilst things burn .
Hi, get some biblical cash for the biblical crash…ha! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RzkHb6a9EtM
Wow Foxy. Thats a mind boggling set of Stats you have there at your finger tips.
Great stuff
Correction. Unfunded federal liabilities are $122 trillion, not $250 trillion.
There sure is a lot of information in that debt clock app. For instance, Y/over/Y increase in US M2 money supply divide by the total world yearly production of silver is $696/ounce. Interesting, but is it meaningful? Don’t know.
“When they get to the stage where currency is printed to pay the interest on the debt people will flee the dollar.”
But most of the other world currencies are in turn backed BY THE DOLLAR, as its the world’s main reserve currency. Russia and China appear to recognize that, and are taking countermeasures.
Disagree. You are comparing the initial 8 year bull market when silver multiplied its price by 3800%, vs. an 8 year rally where silver “only” multiplied by 1000% Silver is printing a multi-decade “cup & handle” formation – not a “cup & cup” formation.
Lets hope its a cup and the handle finishes up soon…but it could go on for years and still be a handle
The Rule of Three, or Power of Three, suggests that things that come in threes are funnier, more satisfying, more effective, and/or more memorable, than other numbers of things. So Mr. Fully the third spike up in gold and silver is going to be of “biblical proportions” to quote Pastor Bo! However long it takes will be worth the wait.
It’s possible Fully. I don’t consider it a high possibility though.