K WAVE MID CYCLE SLOWDOWN
Fascinating From Spock Global.
https://spockg.com/2018/12/05/mid-cycle-slowdown-update/
This was opened to Goldtent Readers.
Very Interesting !
Fascinating From Spock Global.
https://spockg.com/2018/12/05/mid-cycle-slowdown-update/
This was opened to Goldtent Readers.
Very Interesting !
Love that chart and that thought.
for the lovers of long waves studies.
a blast from the past.of no practical value.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/its-just-time-martin-armstrong.pdf
Thanks for sharing that Electrum
The cycle is 18-22 years with an average of 18.6 years over 200+ years.
The last mid cycle slowdown was 2001-2003 and I do not expect this one to commence until 2020 until after a “blow off” phase in stocks.
I always appreciate seeing Spock’s analyses and am grateful when he shares them with us.
However, I am not so sure that his prediction of the real estate cycle will follow its past course this time. Outside influences can alter or even terminate established cycles, and there may be a huge outside influence waiting in the wings this time. Home building has traditionally been fueled by young people buying their first homes, but this generation comes onto the scene with $1.4 trillion in student loan debt. No other generation carried that much debt into the market, and I have the feeling that paying off student debt may alter the real estate cycle seriously to the downside. I hope I am wrong.