Loading ...Looking ahead. Has the Stock market bull run its course?
It has. We can expect a SM downturn soon. It will be a case of sell the rally, rather than buy the dip.
The DOW is NOT going to 100,000 nor even 50,000 any time soon.
There will be little, if any, inflation.
Stocks will trend down for a long while. Why?
Demographics.
Raoul Pal, founder and CEO of Real Vision explains… (IMO this video is well worth viewing – runs about 50 min – and its free!)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5OFaZcC0lRU
EDIT: You may have to “rewind it” to watch it from the beginning.
He could be wrong becuase…
What if USD cut his purchase power by half? Dow could make then x2. Well, roughly mathematics but… Look at argentina or venezuela indexes.
100% inflation for $USD? There was high inflation in the 1970s – how did the SM do then?
100% inflation for $USD – pensioners, and many others, will starve. People will buy food, and toilet paper, not stocks.
Your money, your decision. Good luck. Seriously.
The average PE ratio for the Russel small caps index is 75:1 (OK, dropping a little lately, but still!)
A PE ratio of 20 is getting up there, 12 is a good buy, 5-7 is a screaming buy. But 75:1 ?
The caution flag is raised – or is it a red flag ?
If one has the time and the inclination, here is another blurb from Real Vision:
The Big Story: Edge of the Cliff
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vBJ-p0ybhzs
Of course, but I meant in the long term. I meant, if the dollar drops 50%, stocks could double. Roughly maths.
But, again, look venezuela and argentina indexes. Inflation is yuuuge, and I think ppl don´t buy stocks. But… http://prntscr.com/lf7d5f wow that´s an increase in % terms. Venezuela is even worse.