Plunger
This is a small snip from Plungers Weekend Report at Rambus Chartology.
“Preparing For The Next Bull Market in Gold
I certainly hope you recognize that Rambus’ work in the gold space is arguably the best of anyone in the entire world. No where else have I seen anyone able to take such an unemotional analytical approach. On balance his charting of the sector shows a bearish outcome still. Using his charts I agree the likelihood is for lower prices still. But I also think we are in the end game of this gold bear market and I can see the turn coming.
Successful trading and investing comes from mental preparation and I think it’s time to start nailing down ones plan for the upcoming bull market. One should have a well vetted buy list at the ready. But here is the thing, it is my view that when the turn comes it will be explosive. It won’t be a bottom like the one we have seen in uranium. Uranium was a long drawn out affair which gave everyone who cared a chance to get in at a bottom price. No, I think we are going to wake up one day and find the gold sector exploding upward and it will be virtually impossible to get in. If you are not at least partially positioned already… you are screwed. The scenario most likely to me is the FED will shift policy and this will light a match to the powder keg which sits underneath the gold price. Let’s explore this.
The FED’s reputation rests on the success of their QE program of the past 10 years. The reality of this program is it was crack-pot economics pure and simple. It was a radical monetary program conjured up in the halls of the economics department of Princeton University and MIT. No real world experienced banker ever had any input, just the egg head Phd professors of academism. But now they own it and are not about to back track or admit any mistakes. So they have announced this aggressive shrinkage of the FED’s balance sheet and the raising of rates. It is going to crash the markets and lead us into recession. But here is the thing… they are not about to change course any time soon. That would discredit them!.
I have no doubt they will ultimately relent, but not until the pain and damage becomes intolerable, remember they have to defend their crack-pot theories. So when the day comes when they go back to accommodation it will be a monumental policy change and the market will instantly recognize the failure and it will have tremendous ramifications.
I believe that will be the day the market realizes the great bull market in gold has begun. That day will be a surprise and markets will explode up vertically. So I am saying one should be partially positioned already before this happens even though you will have likely suffered from being long in a declining market. Why? Because you won’t be able to get in once it lifts off, you will be too rattled.
1982 Secular Bull Market Launch
The analogy to what is coming is the beginning of the stock bull market in August 1982. I was around when the great bull market took off and recall how nobody could believe it. I have gone back and read all of Richard Russells newsletters from July to December 1982 to get a feel for it. Russell himself could not embrace the bull until well into October. The psychology was just so beaten down that the old seasoned worn out pros just couldn’t accept it. It had to be just another BMR to them. The rally was kicked off by a FED policy change. Volcker finally loosened up the strings after almost destroying Mexico and the market never looked back. Look at the chart of the DOW below, just an unbelievable move. This is what a real bull market looks like:
Impressive: The DOW up 40% in just 3 months of action and look at the volume. If you were waiting for a decent Fib retrace to get in you were left on the sidelines. You had to just believe it and buy it. Now think of the gold sector which could be much more explosive than the DOW. Think of the chart above, perhaps times 5. When gold decides to go because the FED relents you are going to have to strap yourself on. One must prepare oneself emotionally before this happens or you will miss it.
Someday it’s coming knights… prepare for it. ”
Plungers Weekend Report in Full…For Rambus Members
https://rambus1.com/2018/11/04/weekend-report-uranium-update-plus-faang-watch/
It’s going to be fascinating to see if this gold ‘bottoming’ process morphs into yet another chart pattern without breaking out above $1400, and extends this period of grinding boredom. Gold may sniff out the coming shitstorm before the Fed actually, formally announces a policy reversal. At that point, we probably go pretty much vertical.
Thanks Plunger. What’s your expected timeline to begin seriously accumulating and getting leveraged?