Loading ...Commodities Bull Market ?
Sure doesn’t feel like it.
Some concerns here
Basic Materials…new 52 week low
Wood…TIMBERRR
COPX ( Copper Miners)….Yikes!
REMX ( Rare Earths)…looks like nobody wants em anymore
LIT ( Lithium)
Yes some commodity sectors are OK still but these charts give one pause.
Tough markets right now…everywhere.
Cash is king
Real estate market and construction is going down, how can commodities goes up?
Unless there is big Infrastructure plan at nation level, there is no catalyst for commodities upside.
Looks like stock market reached high for this cycle, unless Admin comes up with big Infra plan, there is no way this market can continue post elections.
My 2 cents.
“Real estate market and construction is going down, how can commodities goes up?”
They’ve been on a tear. Why have commodity prices languished?
Fundamentals beat all other methods for investing. Understanding the fundamentals makes a mockery of those who look at lines or cycles or count impulse waves. The problem is,nobody ever correctly understands the complete fundamentals, even if we’re capable of making reasonable correlations between construction and commodity usage. There are 50 other connections that we don’t see and can’t account for. Why should gold go down as the Fed’s balance sheet goes up? Why can the dollar go down even as interest rates rise or liquidity dries up? My point is that long-term economic cycles are very important pieces of information, perhaps the most telling ones we have, that we ignore at our peril. They often will out!
There is a very interesting chart on p26 Fig 8 in the Ascendant Strategy report I mentioned in Northstar’s post.
It is a price model for commodities and shows a “double bottom” in Jun 2016 and Sep 2018 (plus or minus a few months given that it was formulated some time ago) before moving higher into the end of the decade & beyond.
Written in early 2016 it states..
“The low point in the decade should be close at hand. Do not expect commodity prices to collapse from here, even though any lows in 2018, should they materialize, may marginally break the lows in 2016.
Equally, do not expect a runaway advance in prices just yet – the Price Model is forecasting more of a sideways move from here for a couple of years. This is consistent with market events in which weaker demand is balanced against abundant supply.
The Price Model does not turn up until the end of the decade, through there is the possibility of intra-year rises in late 2016, 2017 and 2018. But the final part of the decade should see a major rally.
In fact, I would say that given we are in the upswing of the Long Wave, the rally in prices towards the end of the decade could be more significant than indicated.”
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/houses-built-sand-next-property-market-crash-akhil-patel/?published=t
Thanks for that info.
“This is consistent with market events in which weaker demand is balanced against abundant supply.”
Made me think of the US dollar. Tightening supply–if that even persists past the next stock mkt swoon– can provide a headwind against the speed of dollar decline, but needn’t stop or reverse it.
sorry that reply was intended for Norvast
Fundamentals are drivers for markets, TA is triggers for in/out. We need both to see bigger picture.
If there is no big Infra plans, we have seen highs for this bull cycle, every thing falls Stocks, Commodities, even gold initially months and it may recover and start multi year bull. Only wild card oil, it may spike based on middle east conflicts, but thats not good for any market except oil,
If there is 1 trillion Infra plan, we may see final leg up marking top in 2019/20.
My 2 cents.