Loading ...The Kondratieff Cycle In Commodities
I hope Surf doesn’t mind me reproducing this (I’ll take it off if he does). It’s freely available via Google (from last year). It helps answer the point Fully made about how much trust you can put in cycle theory…
High prices in the mid 2020’s ? Inflation ? (I know, I know, but in this case I’m just meaning goods/services priced in dollars increasing more rapidly), Falling dollar index ? I certainly believe that ‘heartbeat’ is discernible in the dollar as well…
Dollar and golds roughly 15 year cycles fit into the 50 to 60 year cycles above. They’re all interlinked. Could the links break ? Could the dollar soar ? Nothing’s impossible, but, for me, it’s a question of probability. In my view, the odds favour a falling dollar.
Great chart.( first one ) Interesting that ALL the tops were Spikes…Commodities didnt gradually rise steadily to thier peak…they spiked ( likely parabolic on a day chart) and then crashed.
This time the spike was very early in the cycle….does it still have legs ? According to this chart …yes…about 7 more years
All pieces of a huge jigsaw pattern. The dollar is due to bottom in about 7 years. Coincidence ?
Looks to me like the ideal wave (dotted grey line) is only about half way to the top. In every case on the chart, at this particular point, there is still a large spike up needed to complete the pattern. Looks like we are only about 1/2 way there to me. Am I missing something?
Spot on. Higher prices ahead.
The first chart comes from some brilliant research by Akhil Patel from Ascendant Strategy called “The Fifth Wave”, a must read for anyone interested in the long commodity cycle.
Many thanks Norvast;-)