Loading ...Dollar Test
To address Pedro’s point about wave 2 here is a shorter term view of the dollar. The blue count appears to be the preferred count. Both counts call for black B to complete a flat and then move to black C at roughly 92. If an impulsive move develops from black C which takes out point black A then the blue count is confirmed and we move to at least 100. For the red count to be correct then black A,B and C would be taken as 1,2 and 3 of an impulse. In that scenario the bounce from 92 would likely be 38.2% of the last leg and then a new low would be made.
I’ll defer to RM (and Sam) on wave counts like these. EW is challenging enough, but when you are dealing with corrective structures (or when its not clear whether you’re dealing with corrective or impulsive), then its easy to see what you want.
HOWEVER, my work is starting to show LT buy signals flickering on for PMs here mid month. Meaning (PM) lows are in … OR …. they are directly ahead if later this month we see more downside … meaning my LT signals would flicker back off again, then return. And I think they will, because of the sell short signals I have at IT degree (IT momentum tops, IT trends still bearish). EMs and short ETFs are in the same camp.
That all suggests one more dollar burst higher (RM’s blue) …. higher high or lower high I can’t say (and don’t care). Sam also posted a late weekend followup adjustment calling for new DX rebound highs. And for those wondering, the charts just tell us “what” and “when” not usually “why”. We plebes find that out later.